WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#621 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:12 pm

ozonepete wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:

"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"

"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."

"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."


Wobble watching, lol.

Not wobble watching, that's what JMA, ECMWF and GFS consistently showing since yesterday.


That wasn't meant to be negative. It refers to how we watch so closely that every wobble in the forward direction seems to indicate the proper direction. It is a friendly joke among all of here on Storm2k. Not meant to be frivolous. I am wobble watching too. And love it.

:cheesy: :lol: :lol: :lol: Oh ok
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#622 Postby oaba09 » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:13 pm

ozonepete wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:

"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"

"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."

"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."


Wobble watching, lol.

Not wobble watching, that's what JMA, ECMWF and GFS consistently showing since yesterday.


That wasn't meant to be negative. It refers to how we watch so closely that every wobble seems to indicate the proper direction. It is a friendly joke among all of here on Storm2k. Not meant to be frivolous. I am wobble watching too. And love it.


I used to do that as well but over time, I realized how watching the storm's satellite loops hour by hour can drive you crazy LOL.

I check the sat loops every now and then but I rely more on the actual data from the different agencies.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#623 Postby ozonepete » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:24 pm

oaba09 wrote:
From ozonepete: "That wasn't meant to be negative. It refers to how we watch so closely that every wobble seems to indicate the proper direction. It is a friendly joke among all of here on Storm2k. Not meant to be frivolous. I am wobble watching too. And love it."

I used to do that as well but over time, I realized how watching the storm's satellite loops hour by hour can drive you crazy LOL.

I check the sat loops every now and then but I rely more on the actual data from the different agencies.


Haha to you oaba09 and to you, xtyphooncyclonex. Yes it will drive you crazy. But it's really hard to stop doing. :lol:
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#624 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:39 pm

spiral wrote:Image
Each position (dots) represents 6 hourly movements as Alyono pointed out looks a catastrophe may unfold with flooding and mudslides due to the 18+ hours HAGUPIT is modeled to be over land.

Can you send me a link for this please?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#625 Postby oaba09 » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:53 pm

Latest from JTWC(PROGNOSTIC REASONING)....

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
25 NM DIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 052146Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IMPACTING SAMAR ISLAND. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE
FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
120 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS, WITH A 051741Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
121 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT REMAINS HAMPERED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING. TY 22W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH FURTHER ERODES THE STEERING
STR, INDUCING A SLIGHT DEFLECTION TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COAMPS TC WHICH IS MAINTAINING A RECURVATURE SOLUTION.
SEVERAL MODELS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AN EQUATORWARD DIP,
INCLUDING ECMWF, HAVE NOW MOVED MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 22W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO LAND, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ARCHIPELAGO. BY TAU 72, HAGUPIT
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER VWS AND COOL, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, FURTHER ERODING THE SYSTEM. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK BASED ON THE
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING TY 22W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SPEEDS AND INTENSITIES,
RELATED TO HOW EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE EFFECTS OF THE SURGE. SOME
MODELS INDICATE HAGUPIT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A WAVE FEATURE SHORTLY
AFTER RE-EMERGING INTO THE SCS. THIS SURGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DISSIPATION AND AN EQUATORWARD TRACK DEFLECTION NEAR TAU 96. DUE TO
THE LARGE VARIATION IN MODEL SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#626 Postby stormstrike » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:54 pm

gusty winds and rains now felt in Tacloban. And Hagupit is still far. :roll:

Well, 18hrs more or less of that is better than 4hrs of Haiyan.
Hope this weakens more.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#627 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:56 pm

stormstrike wrote:gusty winds and rains now felt in Tacloban. And Hagupit is still far. :roll:

Well, 18hrs more or less of that is better than 4hrs of Haiyan.
Hope this weakens more.

Same here. It's overcast and very windy
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#628 Postby ozonepete » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:03 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
stormstrike wrote:gusty winds and rains now felt in Tacloban. And Hagupit is still far. :roll:

Well, 18hrs more or less of that is better than 4hrs of Haiyan.
Hope this weakens more.

Same here. It's overcast and very windy



Ok, well stay safe guys. You have a long haul to go here with such a slow moving system.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#629 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:08 pm

ozonepete wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
stormstrike wrote:gusty winds and rains now felt in Tacloban. And Hagupit is still far. :roll:

Well, 18hrs more or less of that is better than 4hrs of Haiyan.
Hope this weakens more.

Same here. It's overcast and very windy



Ok, well stay safe guys. You have a long haul to go here with such a slow moving system.

It's starting to rain, it's too far away... It really is huge
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#630 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:13 pm

Article I wrote in my site :)

Link: http://typhoonwatchers.webs.com/apps/blog/

Typhoon Hagupit, locally known in the Philippines as Ruby, is located to the east of Can-avid, Eastern Samar, over the Visayas region of the Philippines. It is expected to move west to west southwest at 10 km/h in a weak steering environment. It has weakened since its peak, nevertheless, it remains a threat to a large part of the Philippines due to its size.

It is the second major storm to affect the Philippines this year, months after typhoon Rammasun had battered the southern and central portions of Luzon, which cause massive power outages and destruction. It roughly follows the track of one the largest weather disasters in the planet last year, typhoon Haiyan, although it had it several miles to the south. Hagupit is expected to make landfall over the central portion of Eastern Samar by Saturday evening local time, as it moves very slowly. The typhoon brings the threat of flash floods and mudslides due to its precipation, and as it gets a higher accumulation due to its slow movement over the affected areas.

Recent forecasts have shifted more to the south, mainly due to better agreement with the model guidance and other agencies. Though the exact location of landfall is unknown, it is expected to bring powerful winds near Tacloban.

Over the past few days, there had been considerable uncertainty in the storm track. However, the agencies and models have gradually shifted toward the south and west, but it still remains.

The main threat of the typhoon is its rainfall, as it is expected to bring an abundant amount especially to the mountains of Samar and Leyte. Evacuations are taking place especially over Southeastern Luzon and most of Visayas.

Now I hope the preparations could be enough, and there would be less impact than the previous storms which passed this area...
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#631 Postby ozonepete » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:15 pm

:uarrow: Good job. Good writing brother xtcx. :)
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#632 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:22 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Good job. Good writing brother xtcx. :)

Thanks.. :)
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#633 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:30 pm

As of now, the storm is wobbling up and down, and means that it is in a straight/due westerly direction. I'm thinking that it would move west-southwest then hit the central/southern part of Samar Island as it accelerates.

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#634 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:34 am

Pressure here is now 999.55 hPa
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#635 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:23 am

The surge in Borongan, Eastern samar

Image

Satellite derived hourly rainfall is huge with large area of 30-40 mm

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#636 Postby talkon » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:24 am

TPPN11 PGTW 060615

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 06/0532Z

C. 12.13N

D. 126.65E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W) OF 5.5. PT AGREES
WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 6.0 BASED ON NORMAL WEAKENING. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#637 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:25 am

Image

closing in....
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#638 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:40 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

closing in....



Radar should be adjusted...the eye is still east of Northern Samar, not yet nearing Bicol region...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#639 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:42 am

dexterlabio wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Image

closing in....



Radar should be adjusted...the eye is still east of Northern Samar, not yet nearing Bicol region...

The eye is east of Sulat, Eastern Samar turning south of west
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#640 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:43 am

^Yeah sure it's coming your way
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