WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

Guys can you give me the link for that radar please? thanks!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It weakened, and went down.

22W HAGUPIT 141206 0600 12.1N 126.6E WPAC 110 941

[euro6208]

Guys can you give me the link for that radar please? thanks!

Virac radar

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/hagupit14/Hagupit_6-7Dec14_VIR.gif

[euro6208]

It weakened, and went down.

22W HAGUPIT 141206 0600 12.1N 126.6E WPAC 110 941

still a very dangerous category 3 major typhoon...weakening category 5's are often the most dangerous...

[jaguarjace]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/volcano/mayon.gif

[Cyclenall]

massive flooding and mudslides will occur from this since this will be moving so slowly.

I wouldn't be surprised if some areas see up to 5 feet of rain, especially in the mountains

That's what I was going to post, right when I first saw the track forecast I knew this typhoon would produce catastrophic flooding and mudslides and rain would be the main deadly factor. I think thousands could parish if the country doesn't act fast but that should have already happened days ago because now its of course ongoing rain-wise. Its movement speed seems a bit unusual to me, and its strong so I think its similar to Mitch.

This is now 3 years in a row that the Philippines has had something crazy thrown at it, Hagupit even looked similar to Haiyan days ago . What a streak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

massive flooding and mudslides will occur from this since this will be moving so slowly.

I wouldn't be surprised if some areas see up to 5 feet of rain, especially in the mountains

That's what I was going to post, right when I first saw the track forecast I knew this typhoon would produce catastrophic flooding and mudslides and rain would be the main deadly factor. I think thousands could parish if the country doesn't act fast but that should have already happened days ago because now its of course ongoing rain-wise. Its movement speed seems a bit unusual to me, and its strong so I think its similar to Mitch.

This is now 3 years in a row that the Philippines has had something crazy thrown at it, Hagupit even looked similar to Haiyan days ago . What a streak.

The evacuations and preparedness are significant factors, and they are a big improvement now than Haiyan. With over 25,000 people evacuated in Tacloban alone, it is easy to say that they have learned a lot from Haiyan. I'm not pretty sure with Samar though, excluding the southern parts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As expected, JTWC shifted south. But why are they making it immediately go WNW?

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.2N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.4N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.0N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.2N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 126.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z.//
NNNN

[stormstrike]

wind is really picking up and rain is getting stronger in Tacloban.

electricity has been cut off.

this is going to be a long night.

[oaba09]

As expected, JTWC shifted south. But why are they making it immediately go WNW?

The answer to your question is actually in the prognostic reasoning(see the bolded part)

FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH ERODES
THE STEERING STR, INDUCING A SLIGHT DEFLECTION TO A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT STILL INDICATE
A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SPEEDS AND INTENSITIES, RELATED TO HOW EACH
MODEL DEPICTS THE EFFECTS OF THE SURGE. DUE TO THIS VARIATION IN
MODEL SPEEDS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I still have doubts on JTWC's forecast. It is too FAR NORTH

[euro6208]

Full progs...

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM DIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 22W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH ERODES
THE STEERING STR, INDUCING A SLIGHT DEFLECTION TO A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT STILL INDICATE
A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SPEEDS AND INTENSITIES, RELATED TO HOW EACH
MODEL DEPICTS THE EFFECTS OF THE SURGE. DUE TO THIS VARIATION IN
MODEL SPEEDS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC with Major typhoon into Gamay with many more low lying coastal cities in it's path...

[oaba09]

multi agency track courtesy of typhoon2000

[euro6208]

stormchaser James Reynolds currently in Calbayog City in the western part of samar due to safety reasons...Eastern coast is very hazardous where waves are lapping on roads...

[euro6208]

JMA's track is coming closer to JTWC's track across northern samar...

[euro6208]

[talkon]

JTWC fixed it at the same latitude as 3 hours ago. (They also have a typo : Hagupati)

TPPN11 PGTW 060933

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPATI)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 12.13N

D. 126.17E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W) OF 5.5. MET AND
PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

JMA fixed it at 12.0N however,

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 6 December 2014

<Analyses at 06/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N12°00'(12.0°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S280km(150NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS run has near-landfall or landfall perhaps over the northern tip of Cebu

WINDS are getting stronger. It's getting scarier, but it's not yet it.


Ozonepete, just in case the GFS run would pan out, how strong would the winds be here?

[ozonepete]

Guys can you give me the link for that radar please? thanks!

Virac radar

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/hagupit14/Hagupit_6-7Dec14_VIR.gif

Thanks pal!