strongest part of eyewall nearing land.
WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
strongest part of eyewall nearing land.
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ozonepete
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS run has near-landfall or landfall perhaps over the northern tip of Cebu
WINDS are getting stronger. It's getting scarier, but it's not yet it.
Ozonepete, just in case the GFS run would pan out, how strong would the winds be here?
Hey there friend! I hope you are staying safe and being careful. I'm getting quite sure that your sustained winds, which should come from the west, will not get higher than about 40-50 mph and your gusts 60 to 75 mph. Please keep us informed on your conditions once in a while but only when conditions are safe. But I think you have dodged a bullet here.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: Re:
ozonepete wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:GFS run has near-landfall or landfall perhaps over the northern tip of Cebu
WINDS are getting stronger. It's getting scarier, but it's not yet it.
Ozonepete, just in case the GFS run would pan out, how strong would the winds be here?
Hey there friend! I hope you are staying safe and being careful. I'm getting quite sure that your sustained winds, which should come from the west, will not get higher than about 40-50 mph and your gusts 60 to 75 mph. Please keep us informed on your conditions once in a while but only when conditions are safe. But I think you have dodged a bullet here.
Northern tip of Cebu? Oh thanks
I think the winds here could be stronger, gusts now are 30+ mph.
But yeah technically I dodged a bullet
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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
Appears to be doing a clockwise loop. Not surprising considering steering winds are almost dead there right now.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
It is so calm in Manila and I can still see the stars and bright moon. It is also very chilly. 
Feels weird, it's like there's no tropical cyclones nearby...
Feels weird, it's like there's no tropical cyclones nearby...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
dexterlabio wrote:It is so calm in Manila and I can still see the stars and bright moon. It is also very chilly.
LOL you think that's chilly? It's 43F here in NYC right now. Although the fact that you feel chilly tells us that your typhoon is ingesting very cool dry air from over you and this will help weaken it considerably. Some good news! Stay safe - I am hitting the hay - very tired.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
ozonepete wrote:dexterlabio wrote:It is so calm in Manila and I can still see the stars and bright moon. It is also very chilly.
LOL you think that's chilly? It's 43F here in NYC right now. Although the fact that you feel chilly tells us that your typhoon is ingesting very cool dry air from over you and this will help weaken it considerably. Some good news! Stay safe - I am hitting the hay - very tired.
Haha please I am used to 34C everyday in Manila so anything lower than 25C is chilly for me.
Thank you also for sharing info's.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
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Btw there is indeed a swath of cooler, drier air from the north and I assume some of that is getting into Hagupit...but how come this storm can still form a huge ball of convection just off the coast? 
I'm thinking about Samar and Leyte towns along valleys and near mountain slopes......this can be a nasty long rain event..
I'm thinking about Samar and Leyte towns along valleys and near mountain slopes......this can be a nasty long rain event..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
Very near landfall - Taft, Eastern Samar
EURO-NAIL!
EURO-NAIL!
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dexterlabio
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PAGASA announced the landfall five minutes ago in the municipalities of Dolores and Oras, Eastern Samar.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
dexterlabio wrote:PAGASA announced the landfall five minutes ago in the municipalities of Dolores and Oras, Eastern Samar.
PAGASA is too far north, landfall is (as I previously mentioned) at TAFT
Eye is moving WSW and is near 11.9N
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sat Dec 06, 2014 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
No landfall yet, but it will surely be south of PAGASA's position
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:
"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"
"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."
"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."
Wobble watching, lol.
Most times I have agreed with you but this time I have to say you dropped the ball with this Typhoon
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Center still off the coast per JTWC
TPPN11 PGTW 061220
A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/1132Z
C. 12.02N
D. 125.83E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CHAPPOTIN
TPPN11 PGTW 061220
A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/1132Z
C. 12.02N
D. 125.83E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CHAPPOTIN
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
Krit-tonkla wrote:Center still off the coast per JTWC
TPPN11 PGTW 061220
A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/1132Z
C. 12.02N
D. 125.83E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CHAPPOTIN
Last time was 12.13N, now 12.02N
Really a sign of my forecast/JMA/ECMWF/GFS verifying
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
NDG wrote:ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:
"Looks to be moving west, maybe even hinting at a hair south of west:"
"It seems to me that during the past several hours it has been on an almost due west heading."
"Yeah, due west for the past 6 hours...and the last few frames indicate a south of west movement."
Wobble watching, lol.
Most times I have agreed with you but this time I have to say you dropped the ball with this Typhoon
Yes, indeed.
But he did quite well. 
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
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