ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Jevo]

18z GFS +120 - Still a Depression

[Jevo]

12z GEM 10 Day Wind Speed

[somethingfunny]

Slowly but surely off to the northeast. I have to look at previous frames side by side to notice the motion.

[Alyono]

Looks like a Bermuda cane

However, I do NOT buy a ENE motion after 5 days. My BS flag is being raised

[tolakram]

At 174 hours it's still drifting very slowly E/NE

[Hurricaneman]

With the ridge the GFS has after 72hrs its most certainly not going to go ENE so in a way that can probably discount that as it makes no sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

At 189h almost due north movement.

[Blown Away]

The GFS steering becomes so weak, I wonder if we will see a loop in future runs?

[somethingfunny]

[Alyono]

the 12Z EC probs show a LOT of uncertainty with a bifurcation

[DESTRUCTION5]

The fact this is still on the map 10 days from now is the definition of suspect...

[tolakram]

That would be a LOT of ACE.

[Alyono]

as I said, the 18Z GFS raised my BS flag

[Hurricaneman]

Probably a case where it doesn't know what to do with it as in does it go out to sea or WNW to Florida so it may be until tomorrow until we have a definitive idea of what will happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve]

Maybe. But it could be days near the Bahamas if it doesn't get sucked out. Too many models have it mulling around the SW Atlantic for a few days to completely ignore that. Tough to say as forward motion has been deliberate, and you could certainly make an argument for the up and out scenario if it gains enough latitude. However, if the HWRF and UKMET continue to show a SE FL threat, it will be time to look at the other factors. We know a front is coming down, and it looks to me like it will be the farthest biased east of the summer fronts so far. And we know this will open an alleyway out along with the back door front creeping down southwesterly. Behind that is a high anticipated to come down from Canada and New England which would tend to trap anything below it, particularly if it links up with oceanic high pressure. I guess I'll start staring a water vapor loops tomorrow if we don't get any clarity with the 00z runs later tonight. Eventually in the trap scenario, the push is west around the Southern periphery of a descending high to the north. Nobody wants to see one of those shortcut type storms (e.g. Hugo type forced track but farther south)

[JPmia]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits: Looking at 500mb signature of 96L, 12z GFS is as close to a ball sitting on top of a hill as anything. North or west?

I think this is the best description of our current predicament with the forecast.. there's a fork in the road and we don't know which way it will go.

[somethingfunny]

The HWRF is still releasing but so far it looks very similar to previous HWRF runs. While many people have been making note of the HWRF's consistency, the GFDL has also been very consistent.

[tolakram]

HWRF still strong

[tolakram]

Slower than before but still approaching the coast.

[SFLcane]

That's 5 runs now...