ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Riptide · #721 Postby **Riptide** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:54 pm

It is based on GFS modeled winds and are not real-time observations. We know that the GFS is not bullish with 93L but that is not enough for me personally to disregard this system completely. A decent convective tower structure can change things dramatically.

#722 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:54 pm

Convection now fireing on the north side of the circulation, I am hedging on an upgrade soon.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

floridasun78 · #723 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:55 pm

i think islands will get few hours to get ready if watch go up 5am if get stronger

Chris_in_Tampa · #724 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:56 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the wording in the outlook, I would assume that if they were going to upgrade there would've been plenty of time to get the advisory out a tad early (which has happened in some cases) if they were going to upgrade, and there is still nothing yet, which leads me to believe there won't be one today.

Keep in mind that it takes time to coordinate watches and warnings with a lot of different countries in the Lesser Antilles. So whether they upgrade at 11pm, or even simply issue watches and warnings ahead of a possible future upgrade, they have a lot of work to do.

Bocadude85 · #725 Postby **Bocadude85** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:57 pm

Tropical storm Bertha on NHC site

TheStormExpert · #726 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:58 pm

Could they always pull a special advisory at 2am if convection persist over the next couple of hours?

#727 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:58 pm

Here we go!

Hurricaneman · #728 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:58 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Could they always pull a special advisory at 2am if convection persist over the next couple of hours?

No special advisory needed, Bertha is born

hurricanekid416 · #729 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:59 pm

We have Bertha

floridasun78 · #730 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:59 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA RSS Feed icon Satellite | Buoys | NDFD | Storm Archive
Public
Advisory
none issued
in last 12 hrs Aviso
Publico
not
available Forecast
Advisory
#1
0300 UTC Forecast
Discussion
none issued
in last 12 hrs Wind Speed
Probabilities
none issued
in last 12 hrs

#731 Postby **TCu** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:00 pm

Upgrade to Bertha is likely, though I am not completely buying those SFMR winds. Convection is grad increasing, but still not close enough to the center, and not even in 2 quads...but I see them upgrading based on the fact the islands are in the cross hairs of TS winds in less than 24 hrs, as others have alluded to...

Edit: There she is..

TheStormExpert · #732 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:00 pm

Guess I spoke too soon! 8-)

floridasun78 · #733 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:01 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

hurricanekid416 · #734 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:02 pm

Nhc keeps it as a tropical storm for 5 days

#735 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:03 pm

Well, first time being conservative about an upgrade at 11 AM but they still upgraded her to TS. I guess they were just waiting for some minimal convection to form close to the LLC.

floridasun78 · #736 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:03 pm

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

#737 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:04 pm

TCu wrote:Upgrade to Bertha is likely, though I am not completely buying those SFMR winds. Convection is grad increasing, but still not close enough to the center, and not even in 2 quads...but I see them upgrading based on the fact the islands are in the cross hairs of TS winds in less than 24 hrs, as others have alluded to...

Edit: There she is..

Those SFMR winds reported by the recon were very clean, they also matched flight level winds reported.

Hurricaneman · #738 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:05 pm

floridasun78 wrote:A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

I wouldn't be surprised if the watch extended to Hispaniola in the 5AM advisory

#739 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:06 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:I would be surprised at an upgrade. For the first time there is surface wind indication that the low is not closed anymore.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 0,4.70,796

There is convection building but without a closed low I don't know why they would upgrade at this point.

Don't know how you could have assumed no closed low based just on that. ???

jaxfladude · #740 Postby **jaxfladude** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:06 pm

May she be a lady now and not an unwelcome guest for someone out-there...

==============
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