ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#741 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:07 pm

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
so likely stay weak
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#742 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:07 pm

New Blog Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/07/31/93 ... rm-bertha/
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#743 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:09 pm

We still don't know the tropics well enough.

These engines are amazing forces of nature.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#744 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:10 pm

Wonder if the models will shift west again. Or if they will stick to the recurve scenario.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#745 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:12 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Wonder if the models will shift west again. Or if they will stick to the recurve scenario.


Recurve scenario is still very likely. In the short term the more westerly it stays the more to the west they will keep shifting the track.
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#746 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:13 pm

let see what Models show later tonight and friday
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#747 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:14 pm

This is looking more and more like a repeat of TS Chantal from last year.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#748 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:16 pm

Discussion hasn't come out yet, the upgrade reasoning should be an interesting read.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#749 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:19 pm

Hammy wrote:Discussion hasn't come out yet, the upgrade reasoning should be an interesting read.


Lol, yeah. I need to get to bed but I can't until I see that. And btw I think this was a really good call. So far the HC has handled it really well and this was a really tough call.
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#750 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:This is looking more and more like a repeat of TS Chantal from last year.

yes have same type cone as BERTHA http://miami.cbslocal.com/2013/07/08/ts ... -antilles/
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#751 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:20 pm

Yeah the discussion is certainly delayed.

This storm surprised me. Really was looking like it wouldn't form. Bertha will most likely be those weak TS that struggle to maintain a circulation like several in the last few seasons.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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#752 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:22 pm

They sure are taking their time to come out with their Forecast Discussion.
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#753 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:22 pm

Discussion is out now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re:

#754 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:23 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Discussion is out now.


Could someone put it in the advisories thread please 8-)
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#755 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:26 pm

The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable
for significant strengthening during the next two days due
to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,
the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal so may get stronger as move out to sea
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#756 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:27 pm

Read discussion at Advisory thread
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#757 Postby MGC » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:31 pm

Not surprised considering the convection that has fired near the circulation center. Two tropical cyclones formed in July.....MGC
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#758 Postby hurricanekid416 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:32 pm

MGC wrote:Not surprised considering the convection that has fired near the circulation center. Two tropical cyclones formed in July.....MGC

Wasn't Arthur technically in June
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#759 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:34 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:
MGC wrote:Not surprised considering the convection that has fired near the circulation center. Two tropical cyclones formed in July.....MGC

Wasn't Arthur technically in June

Arthur formed as TD #1 at 11pm June 30th.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#760 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:34 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:
MGC wrote:Not surprised considering the convection that has fired near the circulation center. Two tropical cyclones formed in July.....MGC

Wasn't Arthur technically in June


Tropical Depression 2 also happened.
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