ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

http://i59.tinypic.com/eb3oqq.jpg

Remember that they also do not react to model shifts on just one run, they go by the trends most times.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

http://i59.tinypic.com/eb3oqq.jpg

Of course, waiting on 00z runs to make any changes. They are conservative which is a good thing.

That's what I figured, they are probably going to give it a run or two.

[Weatherboy1]

I'll tell you, if the westward shift continues overnight for one more cycle, NHC will change its tune and map. I frankly don't know what to expect but if I wake up tomorrow and this shift persists, I can guarantee the news will be going nuts! Lol

[gatorcane]

WV loop showing the players unfolding that will dictate the future track of this invest which you can see at the very bottom right of image:

[NDG]

0z Best Track position, notice that it has not reached the 70th longitude.

AL, 96, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 196N, 691W, 35, 1008,

[tropicwatch]

WV loop showing the players unfolding that will dictate the future track of this invest which you can see at the very bottom right of image:

Off Topic a little: upper right hand corner, look at the north easter barreling down.

[jlauderdal]

Up to 80%-90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported
winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those
islands. However, the aircraft data and surface observations
indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if
necessary.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully
becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to
Hispaniola could limit development tonight. Conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Gusty winds and
heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the
mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the
southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

makes sense, conditions only improve in time..by sunday its in a really favorable setup to intensify

[northjaxpro]

Oh, how much that trough will fall south coming down the U.S. Eastern seaboard the next couple of days?

[Alyono]

0z Best Track position, notice that it has not reached the 70th longitude.

AL, 96, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 196N, 691W, 35, 1008,

that's where recon has the lowest pressure 3 hours ago. Not buying their position. This hasn't gone stationary

[Alyono]

One other thing, the environment may NOT favor rapid intensification in the Bahamas now that I look at this a little more.

Not sure the outflow jets are going to set up due to the location of the upper lows. It will favor gradual intensification, however. This is what the models are showing

[NDG]

0z windshear map, analyzed in the 10-20 knot with the UL anticyclone centered to the south of 96L.

[gatorcane]

NHC not buying the GFS and other models sudden westward shift.

http://i59.tinypic.com/eb3oqq.jpg

Latest TAFB graphic - posted around the time the 18Z GFS was running:

[TexWx]

While we're all looking to the East, what's that in the Gulf right now below Texas?

Hard to see on my phone.

[MGC]

By the looks of that WV loop, it don't look like the trough is making much progress south with that big heat ridge over the SE USA. If 96L continues on its rather rapid WNW pace a risk to Florida can't be ruled out. Convection looks to be building but I'd say it is orographic in nature due to the mountains in the Dominic Republic. Will be an interesting few days with the way the models are all over the place......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

the area I mentioned earlier looking more likely to have closed circ .. though small ... as it pulls away from land it should deepen overnight..

[Nimbus]

Does look like the high pressure has bridged through that thin ULL that was there earlier.
The 00z UKMET model has 96L trapped by the ridge and even pushes it south over Cuba.
That is the first serious dynamic model run i've seen that has it tracking into the gulf.

[Hammy]

Vorticity looks strongest where the deepest convection is, it looks like it's trying to form a center but still can't close off (presumably due to land). I'm wondering if the foward speed may be slowing a bit and the MLC may be catching up.

[deltadog03]

It will be a race for sure to see how far this mess can get. The faster it moves in the short term....should equal closer to FL threat.

[OuterBanker]

8 pm now 80%/90% better start learning how to pronounce Christobal.

[ozonepete]

WV loop showing the players unfolding that will dictate the future track of this invest which you can see at the very bottom right of image:

Exactly. This is a case where watching the water vapor loop can tell you quite a bit about what may happen.

While you can see the southwesterly flow just north of our developing system that could pull it out to sea, you can also see the large ridge beginning to dig downward into the east coast of the U.S. and if our storm doesn't get picked up soon into that sw flow, the strong ridge building southward may very well block this system from recurving. No wonder the models keep wavering back and forth. They don't know either heh heh.