ATL: INVEST 90L

[SeGaBob]

What a beautiful storm. OMG.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

It doesn't look that beautiful to me...maybe I'm missing something?

[Annie Oakley]

What a beautiful storm. OMG.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

It doesn't look that beautiful to me...maybe I'm missing something?

For me-it is the symmetry of the storm for now-the mighty fierceness which may develop much further is a different story and entails yet more beauty.

[USTropics]

Recent pass (about 45 minutes ago):



Cloud tops still being sheared away.

[tropicwatch]

The circulation does look more prevalent this evening. Now all it needs is more convection. Noticed the upgrade to 40% from the NHC.

[chaser1]

90L looks like "dog-meat". I'm perplexed that NHC has increased development odds to 40% both in near term and longer term. Upper winds look to increase over time with the strong westerlies dipping further south each day. As I've said in earlier posts, it would appear that the only chance of anything developing anytime soon would be if low pressure were to develop in the Western Caribbean. Most models leave 90L mostly stationary or drift the Invest westward under the deteriorating upper air conditions. The GFS appears to still be attempting to develop a feeble area of low pressure out of the W. Caribbean. The GFS then carries this weak low NNE over South Florida, yet from what I can tell..... this potential disturbance would have a unique identity from the present 90L. Therefore, I just don't see the reasoning for a 40% likelihood of the present system developing into a named storm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

90L continues to build convection this morning; if this continues, we might see a small anticyclone develop which would lower shear over the system prior to landfall tomorrow (Saturday).

We'll see what NHC does.

[Extratropical94]

50%/50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity has increased slightly near the center of a
stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast to subside
somewhat during the next day or so, and gradual development of
this disturbance could occur later today before environmental
conditions become hostile again on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area over the southwestern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization overnight. Although upper-level winds are expected to
remain unfavorable for significant development, an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this
system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014060612, , BEST, 0, 196N, 953W, 30, 1003, LO

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd wager that recon finds a tropical depression later today, if the latest connection burst can hold.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

[TheAustinMan]

Radar out of Alvarado does not exactly indicate anything interesting within its range as of yet.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I believe that the Hurricane Hunters might find something as long as 90L keeps building more convection and begins to have the convection move counterclockwise around the LLC.

More of my thoughts on 90L: http://goo.gl/JVeH0r

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurrtracker79]

JUST IN: Recon flight *WILL* fly as scheduled into disturbance #90L in SW Gulf of Mexico starting around 2pm CDT.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

JUST IN: Recon flight *WILL* fly as scheduled into disturbance #90L in SW Gulf of Mexico starting around 2pm CDT.

Are we sure?

[Evil Jeremy]

From the recon flight plan just issued for tomorrow

3. REMARK: TODAY'S MISSION FOR 06/1900Z WILL FLY.

JUST IN: Recon flight *WILL* fly as scheduled into disturbance #90L in SW Gulf of Mexico starting around 2pm CDT.

Are we sure?

[floridasun78]

WILL FLY.

JUST IN: Recon flight *WILL* fly as scheduled into disturbance #90L in SW Gulf of Mexico starting around 2pm CDT.

Are we sure?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061414
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 06 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S MISSION FOR 06/1900Z WILL FLY.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

WILL FLY.

JUST IN: Recon flight *WILL* fly as scheduled into disturbance #90L in SW Gulf of Mexico starting around 2pm CDT.

Are we sure?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061414
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 06 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S MISSION FOR 06/1900Z WILL FLY.

Okay. All systems go then. Ready to fly at 3pm est right?

[Alyono]

given the recent convective trends, I wouldn't be surprised about a last minute cancellation

the convection that was present overnight has collapsed. Probably was a TD overnight, not sure it will be for much longer, however

[tropicwatch]

Take off appears to be around 11:15 central time.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 06/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 19.5N 95.0W
E. 06/1830Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[TheAustinMan]

Center of circulation now in view west of the main convective cell this morning.