#83 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:15 pm
Hmmmm, 5 day outlook now down to 20% Didn't anyone tell the Atlantic that it's August 11, LOL?
All factors considered, I would tend to agree with Wxman that a combination of low level convergence and more favorable upper level winds might make 94L a decent potential candidate for eventual development. This season has already exhibited that some change to the prior years mid level instability issues seem to have occurred. I am still not convinced that things are back to normal by any stretch of the imagination however. While 94L remains a predominantly low level feature for a few days, near term recurvature seems out of the equation. Looks to me that its own Easterly surge upper level winds are not helping, though a deeper and more robust wave might well have little problem with the upper conditions. Looking at the upper air charts, GFS 200mb forecast indicates that the upper African ridge continues to push westward but in about 36 hours the flow is less strong as the system treks generally to the west. A mid Atlantic trough then approaches but I think it might just add a healthy dose of upper air difluence to help fire the wave up a little more, and the trough then seemingly pulls up and away quite quickly. I'm guessing that if some level of vorticity can remain with 94L, than it might start looking "like something" between 30 - 48 hours from now. Its still hard to say where exactly a low level center might form given the fairly large size envelope of this system. I think that eventual development will occur between 50W -60W & North of 15N (ala present GFS ensemble members) could very reasonably bring a potential Tropical Storm or minimal Hurricane threat to possibly the Virgin Islands, P.R., Bahamas or Fla. & possibly the Northern Gulf. Seems to me that a track & intensity such as that would kind of fit within the overall pattern thus for this season.
If this were any other year I would anticipate development regardless whether global models were yet on board. Given the wave at hand, Climatology, present SST's and anticipated near term upper level winds.... I would assume a system such as 94L would develop. Of course quicker development and the typically common long tracks during years past would commonly present a more developed system to possibly feel the pole-ward pull of any mid Atlantic trough or cut-off (if present).
At the moment SCIENCE (well, and History - 2013) makes it hard for me to be particularly bullish that 94L will ultimately develop; at least until I at see a significant increase in convection or at least for one of the global models to begin consistently latching on to development of a "deeper 94L". "IF" SUCH WERE TO OCCUR, my biggest concern wouldn't be necessarily how strong 94L might become but rather how strong the next storm will be! As a departure from Science (at least with regard to any particular specific synoptics), MY GUT (well, and historical Atlantic hurricane tracks & landfalls) suggests that a bigger concern could be a more intense threat might be the next system that potentially follows a similar general (or mirroring) track, over the days or few weeks to follow. It certainly would not be unreasonable to assume that 94L is merely the forerunner to additional higher amplitude waves yet to emerge from the African coastline during the days & few weeks to come. If the long wave pattern were such where a mid August storm were to be steered to at least 80W coupled with a tendency for tropical systems to continue to struggle to develop within the MDR, than my money would be riding on where a more intense version of 94L might eventually impact during the 1-4 weeks that follow. I'm not suggesting that some low latitude long tracker couldn't just track westward toward the Caribbean and keep on going, but rather that I think 94L poses a 50% chance (or better) of eventually developing into a depression or stronger & most likely affecting the Greater Antilles or some point along the U.S. coastline thereafter. IF that were to occur my hunch is that those same folks or area's close by, might just wanna keep their storm supplies handy.
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