ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian has it riding just offshore of the N Coast of Cuba to right on top of FL Keys by 120 Hrs

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has it passing near Key West in 120 hours. Another Gulf run by the Canadian model.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Canadian has it riding just offshore of the N Coast of Cuba right on top of FL Keys by 120 Hrs

Can you post it, where in the keys have a house in Key Largo.

[HURAKAN]

no one should take the CMC serious, please .. it's not a model for the tropics

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian has it riding just offshore of the N Coast of Cuba right on top of FL Keys by 120 Hrs

Can you post it, where in the keys have a house in Key Largo.

Sorry but can't post maps from Weatherbell on here

[SFLcane]

0z CMC has it passing near Key West in 120 hours. Another Gulf run by the Canadian model.

Link?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not a problem thanks anyway.

[HouTXmetro]

Didn't the Canadian show recurve first and the GFS then Euro followed suit?

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has it passing near Key West in 120 hours. Another Gulf run by the Canadian model.

Link?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/

[AtlanticWind]

NOGAPS has it just off the coast of florida ,big shift on this run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[SFLcane]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

0z CMC has it passing near Key West in 120 hours. Another Gulf run by the Canadian model.

Link?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/

Thanks for the link does not appear to be a full run stops before it gets to the keys.

[Alyono]

while the Canadian does not deserve equal weight, to blindly throw it out is not very scientific, unless there is a flaw in its meteorological reasoning.

In this case, it has backing from the UKMET (how good it is, I do not know), HWRF (which has struggled with long range forecasts this year), and the minority of EC ensemble members.

These models hint at 2 possible scenarios. One (the recurve) is more likely than the other, however

[SFLcane]

[Bocadude85]

NOGAPS has it just off the coast of florida ,big shift on this run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

That is a big west shift from the NOGAPS.. And it had been very persistent about a early recurve east of the Bahamas it's last few runs.

[paintplaye]

NOGAPS has it just off the coast of florida ,big shift on this run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

That is a big west shift from the NOGAPS.. And it had been very persistent about a early recurve east of the Bahamas it's last few runs.

NE trough is a lot shallower and lifts North faster. As a result riding builds in even faster. If you notice, it almost gets caught by the trough initially before getting pushed West slightly.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

NOGAPS has it just off the coast of florida ,big shift on this run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

That is a big west shift from the NOGAPS.. And it had been very persistent about a early recurve east of the Bahamas it's last few runs.

Wow another flip flop, when do we get some kind of idea where this what ever it becomes will go.

[JPmia]

HWRF running out to 63hr.. so far looks like HWRF slows it down in the Bahamas heading nw after going north of the DR.. intensifying too.

[SFLcane]

Indeed..

[MWatkins]

Subtle differences in the intensity of 96L and the strength/shape of the EC trough are going to be huge...and all of this is happening in the 96-120 hour period.

A difference of a degree or two west/north is huge. So far, CMC, NOGAPS have shifted west, and assuming UKMET stays consistent on the west side of the envelope and the HWRF stays consistent with the last 5 runs - the GFS becomes the outlier.

Either way, there will probably be a tropical cyclone sitting in the Bahamas by early next week in a weak steering environment in late August. Should make for an interesting weekend.

MW