ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

look how flat the western side is. This is shear. To get the surface feature, you must look west of the convection

You might be right because I don't think it has slowed down that much. We might see something pop out on the IR2.

[LaBreeze]

Glad to see that this "system" will probably stay out of the GOM. My beach plans for Labor Day weekend will not be disturbed.

[sunnyday]

Just checked some old pm's here. Does anyone know where Mike Watkins is? I always enjoyed his input. And what about Stephanie? They used to show up in situations like these.

[ozonepete]

Except there is no well defined LLC, is there?

But we all know that when there's a very well defined MLC like this, and the other requisite conditions are right, an LLC can form underneath it in a few hours. That is what I would expect here, as long as the shear drops off rapidly tomorrow. And actually from satellite imagery, watching the cloud motion, it looks like the shear is already dropping off.

based on the cloud motion (the actual towers) it looks like a center may have formed or is currently forming over the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, and it also looks like it's moving much slower than earlier which should keep it from running into the shear wall to the west and give the upper level conditions time to improve.

As usual I like the way you analyze these systems because imho you have a good eye for them. But I don't think it's slowing down - that's just an illusion caused by the convection on the northwestern quadrant continually collapsing. And I don't think the LLC (which I think is pretty much developed now) is over land at all. I think it's over the water just north of the central Hispaniola coast. I also don't think there's really a "wall of shear" ahead of it. Shear, which is nothing more than mid to upper level winds coming in from mid-latitude systems, changes very quickly down there in the tropics as mid-latitude upper level troughs dip down there and then just as quickly weaken and/or move away. Our computer models can't follow them very well because we don't have any mid to upper level atmospheric measuring systems over the oceans and thus they also don't forecast shear well either. Until we get satellite systems up there that can measure shear much better than now, your eye and mine are just as good at assessing how much shear is really going on in those regions. And I don't see 30 knots of shear down there at all.

[Hurricaneman]

Glad to see that this "system" will probably stay out of the GOM. My beach plans for Labor Day weekend will not be disturbed.

I wouldn't say this will stay out of the GOM yet but I suspect you could be safe as of now unless something changes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The reason the convection seems to have stopped while the low keeps moving might have to do with Hispaniola disrupting it some

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[toad strangler]

So many near closing assumptions are made from one model run to the next and so on. This will never change and I will never understand this behavior (it gets frustrating) which is why I don't post much! Climo tells us that historically recurves are your best BLIND bet when no obvious set up is in place that will easily dictate the overall movement of a system. Because recurves far out number US landfalling tracks and I assume we all know this. This is a system that is not being guided by a gutter in the bowling alley obvious set up. Thus, almost any scenario these models spit out are reasonable.

[JtSmarts]

Just checked some old pm's here. Does anyone know where Mike Watkins is? I always enjoyed his input. And what about Stephanie? They used to show up in situations like these.

MWatkins posted on Thursday I believe and you can always follow his twitter @watkinstrack.

[Evil Jeremy]

So many near closing assumptions are made from one model run to the next and so on. This will never change and I will never understand this behavior (it gets frustrating) which is why I don't post much!

This is a forum for weather enthusiasts. Can't blame us for getting enthusiastic.

[hectopascal]

Could very well start to see models shift to a track quite similar to Hurricane Isaac's path.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurrtracker79]

Could very well start to see models shift to a track quite similar to Hurricane Isaac's path.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

can you please explain your reasoning?

[ozonepete]

So many near closing assumptions are made from one model run to the next and so on. This will never change and I will never understand this behavior (it gets frustrating) which is why I don't post much!

This is a forum for weather enthusiasts. Can't blame us for getting enthusiastic.

I know I'm not adding much, but lol.

[ozonepete]

Could very well start to see models shift to a track quite similar to Hurricane Isaac's path.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

can you please explain your reasoning?

You beat me to it. What is the reasoning for that?

[floridasun78]

i think plane going now to 96l that will be put for 8am outlook or avd at 5am

[Evil Jeremy]

i think plane in system going now to 96l that will be put for 8am outlook or avd at 5am

There is no recon mission right now...

[floridasun78]

If but is a big if they upgrade at 11 PM,this mission would go after midnight.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 23/0515Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

that from ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon

[Evil Jeremy]

If but is a big if they upgrade at 11 PM,this mission would go after midnight.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 23/0515Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

that from ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon

It's 1am... they would have upgraded 2 hours ago and they didn't. So no mission.

[floridasun78]

bye all going bed let see what do on sat and see what models do

[hectopascal]

It is likely to be trapped by the upper trough across Eastern USA and sterred by the upper level ridge NE when the storm gains intensity iam anticipating a shift to the NW.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MWatkins]

This is a tough forecast challenge - we're looking at anything from a hurricane in the upper Keys to a clip of Cape Hattaras - or out to sea after passing over the Bahamas.

Unfortunately there are no environmental flights scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

It's been a while since we've had a developing system moving WNW into the SW Atlantic near the peak of the season. Still a very subtle difference in the steering pattern will make a huge difference on who gets what.

Also curious what - if any - impact a strong Marie in the east Pac will have on the downstream steering flow.

MW