ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

#941 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:08 pm

Euro is going to go up, up and away it appears as well. That trof is dug down pretty far. *through hour 72*

#942 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:11 pm

No Mark, it's only 1005 mb on the Euro in 72 hours on that map. The min (992 mb) is from the low pressure area in the top right of that image.

#943 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:12 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:No Mark, it's only 1005 mb on the Euro in 72 hours on that map. The min (992 mb) is from the low pressure area in the top right of that image.

Gotcha, thanks.

#944 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:13 pm

#945 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:14 pm

Looking at the H5 map, I just can't see how this stays near the US coast and comes W. There is a nice blocking ridge that has the coast shut down. This is going to have to SUPER stall at that point and the trof leave and ridge build in over the top, but IDK.....

stormlover2013 · #946 Postby **stormlover2013** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:19 pm

From levi @TropicalTidbits: 96L is becoming one of those cases where there is no middle solution. It's either out-to-sea or a west turn that is abrupt.

@TropicalTidbits: Look at the 500mb ridge over AL/MS. You can't push a storm toward GA/SC with that there. It's either NE or west: http://t.co/vTWvHUf6qJ

#947 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:21 pm

#948 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:23 pm

12Z run is well east of the 0Z run.

#949 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:28 pm

#950 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:32 pm

Bermuda has to be on pins and needles seeing these runs...

#951 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:35 pm

Racing away, last image for me.

#952 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:37 pm

MASSIVE east shift by the EC

However, this rapid westward motion could place this west of the models

#953 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:38 pm

and looking at the model output... they have this suddenly slowing to 15 kts during the next 12 hours.

#954 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:40 pm

Alyono wrote:MASSIVE east shift by the EC

However, this rapid westward motion could place this west of the models

Yes, the 12Z GFS has the vort center at 00Z tonight located essentially where the developing LLC is right now. Already 6 hours too slow.

#955 Postby **WPBWeather** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:41 pm

Alyono wrote:MASSIVE east shift by the EC

However, this rapid westward motion could place this west of the models

It did. See:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

#956 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:41 pm

the only model that has a handle on the forward speed is the Canadian. Just something to consider

hurricanekid416 · #957 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:44 pm

Alyono wrote:the only model that has a handle on the forward speed is the Canadian. Just something to consider

Is the cmc still showing a more west track

#958 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:45 pm

This has to be the trickiest model setup I've seen in some time. Even though most models have been keeping this away from Florida for days, I still don't feel like they've made up their minds yet. I'm not a wishcaster, nor am I -removed-, I'm just saying, something feels off...

#959 Postby **WPBWeather** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:45 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:
Alyono wrote:the only model that has a handle on the forward speed is the Canadian. Just something to consider

Is the cmc still showing a more west track

Yes. See link above.

stormlover2013 · #960 Postby **stormlover2013** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:45 pm

Ukmet running yet

ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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