ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[djones65]

Chris?
Are you really using THREE island reports from METAR observations that are at least up to 130miles from the center to support his I or was not a tropical storm????

We have had numerous other island reports CONFIRMING a closed circulation PLUS recon AND confirmed wind gusts of at least 52 mph!

Obviously, Bertha is not well organized and it still may degenerate into an open wave tomorrow. But it definitely was still closed when passing Martinique and Dominica! Just my personal opinion... And I think utilizing your Mcidas screen shots with sparse surface observations do not trump AF recon and visible satellite imagery...

[cycloneye]

There has not been a VDM so far in this mission.

[ozonepete]

Just a guess and my own opinion, but I really believe the NHC will downgrade at 11 p.m.

No chance.

Am I missing something here? Is anyone looking at the RGB satellite loop? Are there really some people who think there's no closed circulation? Or don't see it intensifying as we speak? The convection is increasing in coverage and wrapping right around the LLC. When that occurs in a tropical storm the LLC lines up with the MLC; it doesn't dissipate. I'm really confused where anyone is getting the idea that this is weakening.

[NDG]

Why are they going far south?

I have no idea why they keep flying in so far south.

[ozonepete]

Chris?
Are you really using THREE island reports from METAR observations that are at least up to 130miles from the center to support his I or was not a tropical storm????

We have had numerous other island reports CONFIRMING a closed circulation PLUS recon AND confirmed wind gusts of at least 52 mph!

Obviously, Bertha is not well organized and it still may degenerate into an open wave tomorrow. But it definitely was still closed when passing Martinique and Dominica! Just my personal opinion... And I think utilizing your Mcidas screen shots with sparse surface observations do not trump AF recon and visible satellite imagery...

Well said. (Other than that I highly doubt this will weaken tomorrow.)

[tropicwatch]

I think the Islands might have disrupted the circulation some but the recon still has quite a bit of time left. Now that it is clear of the islands, the circulation might become more pronounced.

[gatorcane]

Just a guess and my own opinion, but I really believe the NHC will downgrade at 11 p.m.

No chance.

Am I missing something here? Is anyone looking at the RGB satellite loop? Are there really some people who think there's no closed circulation? Or don't see it intensifying as we speak? The convection is increasing in coverage and wrapping right around the LLC. When that occurs in a tropical storm the LLC lines up with the MLC; it doesn't dissipate. I'm really confused where anyone is getting the idea that this is weakening.

Saved RGB loop:

[cycloneye]

I think the Islands might have disrupted the circulation some but the recon still has quite a bit of time left. Now that it is clear of the islands, the circulation might become more pronounced.

That is a good point. Maybe a reformation?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

At least at a flight level of around 5,000 feet, the center is on the SW side of the convection.



Recon through: 1:32Z
Satellite: 1:15Z

[cycloneye]

Another thing is it may have slowed a tad.

[cycloneye]

Chris,that is well SW of the 8 PM NHC position.

[caribepr]

I think the Islands might have disrupted the circulation some but the recon still has quite a bit of time left. Now that it is clear of the islands, the circulation might become more pronounced.

That is a good point. Maybe a reformation?

Am I missing something? Cleared the islands? The island chain? What?

[Hammy]

Though it may be temporary, I don't see any evidence that the low is closed until a VDM confirms it, and the wind measurements continue to show that it is a very sharp wave axis at the moment. Latest pass went through the 'center' and showed nothing but east winds.

[MGC]

Doubt the circulation has opened so quickly. Just a few hours ago there was west wind reported on one of the islands. Bertha hasn't had this much convection near its center in a while......MGC

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Maybe it is in the process of reforming. I have no clue, but it looks like, just looking at the satellite, that perhaps it is. From one ball of convection to another.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/c ... on=-61.611

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like Bertha may be slowing down some the past couple of hours - hard to tell using just the SAT loops though. I would think with all the convection blowing up near the center, it may cause some slowing while she tries to organize.

[Hammy]

http://oi60.tinypic.com/120o6yg.jpg Winds may or may not be higher (they haven't gotten to the max convection) but you can see the gradual dissipation of the low level vortex with the X's as the last hints of westerly inflow has completely disappeared. (official 8pm position pinned.)

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/01/be ... caribbean/

**Will update after the advisory

[cycloneye]

Chris,can you include in the graphic the 11 PM position of 15.7N-63.0W ?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Yep