ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Unless they waste some sondes, I think they are estimating the center quite a bit tonight.

The forecast advisory still has it within 30nm, the same as the previous advisory.

"TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 63.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM"

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's interesting, the discussion says:

"The estimated
center position is on the southwestern edge of the convective
canopy"

But the center they went with is a bit further north than what I would describe as "on the southwestern edge".

Update: Upon looking at it on a wider satellite loop with the latest 2:45 image, their center position does make sense.

[gatorcane]

NHC now calls for it to become a hurricane in 96 hours

[cycloneye]

That is why I said at recon thread that something was not right and also no VDM's.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That is why I said at recon thread that something was not right and also no VDM's.

It's good they dropped a sonde. They may not know exactly where the LLC is, instead likely more like what it looks like by satellite, but they would not have known it still had something down there without the sonde. A vortex would still be tricky at this point.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest RGB loop, looks like the center is on the sw edge of the convection. Also the 16 knots of SW shear as analyzed by SHIPS hitting the center is evident.

[Gustywind]

Numerous small but vigorous squall lines come briefly since one hour. Some are bit healthy but nothing too serious afterall.

[ozonepete]

Looking at the latest RGB loop, looks like the center is on the sw edge of the convection. Also the 16 knots of SW shear as analyzed by SHIPS hitting the center is evident.

i.e. nothing has changed very much from what was expected. Shear and some dry air intrusion at times. It will remain at or near its current intensity as it pulses up and down until it clears the islands.

[blp]

I think it is going naked again.

[HURAKAN]

classic poor system

[baytownwx]

I think it is going naked again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yep, sure looks like it! And I might add her LLC looks to be quickly racing west.

[ozonepete]

Well if I lived anywhere in the islands especially including Puerto Rico, DR and Haiti I wouldn't write this off as dying or not stacked or whatever. I'd be waiting very cautiously and carefully for it to move well northwestward away from me. And I'd take any warnings for my area very seriously. Bertha has some serious convection and associated winds with it and these type of storms have caused a lot of serious flooding and wind damage even when they "looked" innocuous. The fact that it's getting sheared doesn't mean it can't do harm.

[blp]

I think it is going naked again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yep, sure looks like it! And I might add her LLC looks to be quickly racing west.

Yes seeing more West. I am having a hard time believing it is going to just skim by Hispaniola. I needs to start gaing some more latitude. If it takes a.direct hit I can't see it recurve that early if it even survives.

[galaxy401]

Another burst of convection near the center. Bertha is trying but it'll probably remain disorganized until it makes it past Hispaniola (IF it survives).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Bertha looks to be moving west-northwest to me. Maybe even a hair north of that in the latest frames. Judging storm motion/direction has always been my weak point though.

[Equilibrium]

Interesting pressure reading.

Gros-Morne, Martinique, Martinique
Pressure 980.92 hPa
Visibility 10.0 kilometers
Clouds Few 701 m
Mostly Cloudy 6400 m
Heat Index 25 °C
Dew Point 21 °C
Humidity 81%
Rainfall 39.12 mm

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... Y2#history

[HurricaneRyan]

I guess I should be glad I don't have to worry about watching this storm on TWC. But it's interesting that they are calling for this to be a hurricane eventually.

[Hammy]

this can be moved to the model section if it would better fit, but It's interesting that the storm's physical appearance is pretty close to some of the HWRF runs of the simulated IR.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Hammy]

last few frames on IR showed a westward surge of the convection closer to the vortex.