SIO: INVEST 94S

[Meow]

10.0S 134.8E

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Issued at 2:20 pm CST on Friday 10 January 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is located over the Arafura Sea north of the
Arnhem District. The low is expected to move towards the west and remain north
of the Top End of the Northern Territory during the weekend. By Monday, the low
is expected to move southwest or south, either into the Timor Sea or over the
Northern Territory Top End. If the low moves into the Timor Sea, the risk of a
tropical cyclone forming will continue to increase.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 12 January 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low, 1003 hPa, was located over the Arafura Sea north of the
Arnhem District, about 400 km northeast of Darwin, at 12:30 pm CST on 12
January. The low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction, passing the
Cobourg Peninsula or Tiwi Islands Monday night, then continue moving southwest
during Tuesday and Wednesday, either over the western Top End of the Northern
Territory or over the Timor Sea. If the low is located sufficiently over water,
it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday night or on Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: High

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 11:16 am CST Monday 13 January 2014.



Remarks:
The low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction, close to the Tiwi Islands and the west coast of the
Top End. There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Timor Sea but GALES are not expected
in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

[stormkite]

Bring on the next. Appears to have a excellent outflow going.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 2:22 pm CST Tuesday 14 January 2014.



Remarks:
The low is currently over the northwest Top End, south of the Van Diemen Gulf and is expected to move in a
southwest direction, passing over the southern Timor Sea during Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 95 kilometres per hour may develop between Daly River Mouth and Kalumburu during
Wednesday.

[mrbagyo]

quite a wet system

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S
129.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH THE RADAR LOOP FROM HALLS CREEK, AUSTRALIA, SHOWS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER, DESPITE REMAINING OVERLAND FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. DYNAMIC
MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL DEFINED AS IT TRACKS WEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING INTO THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN THE NEXT 96 TO 120 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[hurricanes1234]

993 mbar and this is still an invest? Very odd.

94S INVEST 140117 1800 21.1S 127.4E SHEM 25 993

Also weird is the fact that this is holding up so well over dry land.

[stormkite]

993 mbar and this is still an invest? Very odd.

94S INVEST 140117 1800 21.1S 127.4E SHEM 25 993

Also weird is the fact that this is holding up so well over dry land.

Still looks good now as you stated.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 16.83,2048

[jaguarjace]

Pressure is deeper than TC June.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.5S 122.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVERLAND IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS QUICKLY TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. A 191027Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPANNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM TELFER AND MARBLE BAR HAVE INDICATED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30
KNOTS AND PRESSURES NEAR 990 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN EAST
OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS AND DRIVE IT POLEWARD BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WEST COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Medium but overland!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saddened to see it's not classified; it meets all the requirements of a tropical cyclone. The system is even displaying an eye feature on infrared imagery.

[stormkite]

Yeah everybody here knows its a "cyclone". Prolly go down as a no name on some future archives 2014 cyclone tracks chart.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5S
122.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED
OVERLAND IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS QUICKLY TRACKING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. A 191027Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SPANNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
TELFER AND MARBLE BAR HAVE INDICATED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS
AND PRESSURES NEAR 990 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN EAST
OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS AND DRIVE IT POLEWARD BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WEST COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Alyono]

Seems BOM not classifying it solely because it is over land and would be unprecedented

[stormkite]

[RL3AO]

Interesting system with how its behaved over land.

[hurricanes1234]

Interesting system with how its behaved over land.

I agree. I can't recall any system holding up this well, after having not seen water in several days.