(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S 160.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2014//
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND HIGHLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED AND
BROKEN CONVECTION. A 160343Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ONLY
SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH HIGHLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS FAVORABLE
MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
SPAC: JUNE - Tropical Cyclone 10P
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
"DYNAMIC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM"
Wow! I don't even think they said that with Ian before it developed. It is amazing how many major cyclones we have had since November, but dare I say this could be another major one when it forms?
Amateur opinion only.
Wow! I don't even think they said that with Ian before it developed. It is amazing how many major cyclones we have had since November, but dare I say this could be another major one when it forms?
Amateur opinion only.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:"DYNAMIC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM"
Wow! I don't even think they said that with Ian before it developed. It is amazing how many major cyclones we have had since November, but dare I say this could be another major one when it forms?
Amateur opinion only.
Early days who knows i was surprised with this one i do know another healthy cyclone is being forecast to develop around the 20Th in the Gulf of Carpentaria
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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-
Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/1942 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 160.3E AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YEILDS DT OF 2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.3S 161.8E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.5S 163.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 21.0S 163.9E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.8S 164.3E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
Jan 16/1942 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 160.3E AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YEILDS DT OF 2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.3S 161.8E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.5S 163.1E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 21.0S 163.9E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.8S 164.3E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
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-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
Re: SPAC: INVEST 96P
Tropical Cyclone June (still remains identified as 96P from JTWC)..
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/0549 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.2E AT 170400 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC REMAINS PERSISTANT AND ITS AREA HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171600 UTC 19.5S 163.2E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180400 UTC 22.0S 164.1E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181600 UTC 24.6S 164.8E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190400 UTC 27.6S 165.5E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/0549 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.2E AT 170400 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC REMAINS PERSISTANT AND ITS AREA HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171600 UTC 19.5S 163.2E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180400 UTC 22.0S 164.1E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181600 UTC 24.6S 164.8E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190400 UTC 27.6S 165.5E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
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jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
SPAC: JUNE - Tropical Cyclone
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone JUNE
Issued at 0603 UTC Friday 17 January 2014.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone JUNE
Issued at 0603 UTC Friday 17 January 2014.
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Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Not forecast to intensify much anymore?
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.01.2014
TROPICAL STORM JUNE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5S 162.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.01.2014 18.5S 162.3E WEAK
00UTC 18.01.2014 19.7S 163.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.01.2014 22.3S 164.1E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.01.2014 26.0S 164.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.01.2014 29.5S 165.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.01.2014 32.6S 167.7E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.01.2014 35.2S 170.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.01.2014 37.3S 174.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.01.2014 43.4S 178.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.01.2014 45.7S 179.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.01.2014 49.8S 175.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.01.2014 52.8S 173.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.01.2014 POST-TROPICAL
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... e/warnings
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TROPICAL STORM JUNE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5S 162.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.01.2014 18.5S 162.3E WEAK
00UTC 18.01.2014 19.7S 163.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.01.2014 22.3S 164.1E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.01.2014 26.0S 164.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.01.2014 29.5S 165.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.01.2014 32.6S 167.7E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.01.2014 35.2S 170.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.01.2014 37.3S 174.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.01.2014 43.4S 178.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.01.2014 45.7S 179.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.01.2014 49.8S 175.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.01.2014 52.8S 173.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.01.2014 POST-TROPICAL
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... e/warnings
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.3S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.0S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 35.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 172106Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 172208Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THIS ASCAT IMAGE AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA. TC 10P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. SINCE TC 10P IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ATTAIN A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE WEAKENING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.//
Very different to the above forecast.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.3S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.0S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 35.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 172106Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, A 172208Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THIS ASCAT IMAGE AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA. TC 10P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. SINCE TC 10P IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ATTAIN A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE WEAKENING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.//
Very different to the above forecast.
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-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SPAC: JUNE - Tropical Cyclone 10P
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone JUNE
Issued at 8:04 pm NFT Saturday 18 January 2014 based on international data at 5:30 pm NFT.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a south southeast direction
over the next couple of days and pass close to the west of Norfolk Island during the early hours of Monday.
Tropical Cyclone June will most likely lose its tropical cyclone structure before its approach to Norfolk Island,
though the remaining intense low will still have impacts similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.
Damaging winds averaging above 80 kilometres per hour, with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour, will develop
about Norfolk Island during Sunday morning and persist into Monday morning.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to localised flooding, is expected to develop during Sunday, before easing
overnight into Monday.
Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which
may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore during Sunday and Monday.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone JUNE
Issued at 8:04 pm NFT Saturday 18 January 2014 based on international data at 5:30 pm NFT.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a south southeast direction
over the next couple of days and pass close to the west of Norfolk Island during the early hours of Monday.
Tropical Cyclone June will most likely lose its tropical cyclone structure before its approach to Norfolk Island,
though the remaining intense low will still have impacts similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.
Damaging winds averaging above 80 kilometres per hour, with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour, will develop
about Norfolk Island during Sunday morning and persist into Monday morning.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to localised flooding, is expected to develop during Sunday, before easing
overnight into Monday.
Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and abnormally high tides, which
may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas, may occur along the foreshore during Sunday and Monday.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
I agree with the JTWC forecast of no intensification, it looks really awful right now. Horrible banding and disorganised, warming cloud tops. Sorry if this is a dumb question, but isn't this the same system being aggressively developed by the models a few days ago?
Personal and amateur opinion only.
Personal and amateur opinion only.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone June
IDQ20064
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 9:40 am NFT Sunday 19 January 2014 based on international data at 8:30
am NFT
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.
At 8:30 am NFT, Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 535 kilometres
north northwest of Norfolk Island and moving south at 28 kilometres per hour.
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is expected to continue moving in a south southeast
direction over the next couple of days and pass close to the west of Norfolk
Island during the early hours of Monday. The impacts on Norfolk Island are
expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.
Damaging winds averaging above 80 kilometres per hour, with gusts over 100
kilometres per hour, will develop about Norfolk Island this morning and persist
into Monday morning. The winds are expected to peak tonight when gusts to 120
km/h are possible.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to localised flooding, is expected to develop
today before decreasing during Sunday night.
Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore today and Monday.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 8:30 am NFT:
.Centre located near...... 24.9 degrees South 165.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the - For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island Administration website
at:
[http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management]
- For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm NFT Sunday 19 January.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Certainly not the aggressive cyclone the models predicted been a complete fizzer.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Issued at 9:40 am NFT Sunday 19 January 2014 based on international data at 8:30
am NFT
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for Norfolk Island.
At 8:30 am NFT, Ex-Tropical Cyclone June was estimated to be 535 kilometres
north northwest of Norfolk Island and moving south at 28 kilometres per hour.
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE is expected to continue moving in a south southeast
direction over the next couple of days and pass close to the west of Norfolk
Island during the early hours of Monday. The impacts on Norfolk Island are
expected to be similar to a Category 1 tropical cyclone.
Damaging winds averaging above 80 kilometres per hour, with gusts over 100
kilometres per hour, will develop about Norfolk Island this morning and persist
into Monday morning. The winds are expected to peak tonight when gusts to 120
km/h are possible.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to localised flooding, is expected to develop
today before decreasing during Sunday night.
Damaging surf, which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion, and
abnormally high tides, which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas,
may occur along the foreshore today and Monday.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone June at 8:30 am NFT:
.Centre located near...... 24.9 degrees South 165.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island [+6723 999]
or the Norfolk Island Police Force [+6723 22222]
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the - For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Norfolk Island Administration website
at:
[http://www.info.gov.nf/Emergency_Management]
- For emergency assistance call the Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723
999 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm NFT Sunday 19 January.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and Norfolk Island
Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from
New Zealand.
Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs 30min
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Certainly not the aggressive cyclone the models predicted been a complete fizzer.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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-
hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone June
This is a waste of 'June' in my opinion. The name does not deserve to go to a system that is barely a storm and is a 90% mess on satellite imagery. I hope it didn't cause too much damage wherever it made landfall.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I agree with the JTWC forecast of no intensification, it looks really awful right now. Horrible banding and disorganised, warming cloud tops. Sorry if this is a dumb question, but isn't this the same system being aggressively developed by the models a few days ago?
Personal and amateur opinion only.
yes.
This is the same system where many people hyped a strong cyclone hitting New Zealand. Well thank god the models busted.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: Re:
euro6208 wrote:
yes.
This is the same system where many people hyped a strong cyclone hitting New Zealand. Well thank god the models busted.
I guess you could say June was busting out all over.
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