SIO: INVEST 97S

[mrbagyo]

97S
12.5 S-58.6 E

[Grifforzer]

WTIO30 FMEE 180640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20132014

1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8
2.A POSITION 2014/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 54.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/18 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2014/01/19 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/19 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/20 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2014/01/20 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2014/01/21 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS MARGINAL WITH THE PERSISTENT MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS LOW IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL ITS LANDFALL ON THE NORTH-EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

INHABITANTS OF NORTHERN TIP AND THE NORTH-EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.