WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[Meow]

I cannot see if Faxai will defeat strong vertical wind shear.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I cannot see if Faxai will defeat strong vertical wind shear.

http://cl.ly/UBNK/wgmssht.GIF

But do you notice the shear decreasing and Faxai is in an area of 10-kt shear?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As the shear is gradually decreasing on where Faxai is and the SSTs are warming, I would go for a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2. This is still VERY RARE at this time of the year, and, going for a Super Typhoon may be too bullish.

==========================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

03W FAXAI 140302 0000 9.7N 149.3E WPAC 50 985

Up to 50 knots and pressure of 985 mb!

[stormkite]

03W
TROPICAL STORM 03W 0:00UTC 02March2014
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 10:04:07 N
Longitude : 149:45:49 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 991.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 879.7 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 111.3 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.6 m/s
Direction : 134.6 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

SST is good up to L20

[euro6208]

Not much happening here just a few scattered showers, winds are strong at times and partly sunny given the close proximity of faxai to the marianas.

[euro6208]

I cannot see if Faxai will defeat strong vertical wind shear.

But do you notice the shear decreasing and Faxai is in an area of 10-kt shear?

As faxai continues to develop and become stronger, it creates an environment that's favorable of it's own for further intensification especially if it has a super outflow going like what we have now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 012008Z CORIOLIS 37V IMAGE AND A
012350Z METOP-B PROVIDE SOLID EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON THE
CDO FEATURE AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE. TS 03W APPEARS TO BE TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE STR EXTENSION WEAKENS DUE TO IMPINGING WESTERLY FLOW AND THE STR
RE-ORIENTS POLEWARD. AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST, TS 03W IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 125 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, THEREFORE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A MINOR WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A GENERALLY NORTHWARD, SLOW TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS DUE TO WEAK VWS AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES
SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS FAXAI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW, POLEWARD OF THE
STR AXIS. TS 03W SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR
TAU 72 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM MOTION.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC [again] expects Faxai to intensify into a typhoon.

[stormkite]

As the shear is gradually decreasing on where Faxai is and the SSTs are warming, I would go for a strong Cat 1-weak Cat 2. This is still VERY RARE at this time of the year, and, going for a Super Typhoon may be too bullish.

==========================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MJO is good ocean temp is great i don't believe shear will be a problem time will tell i wont be at all surprised to see a super typhoon. As for rare as you point out yeah true going by kept records. Reality is this planet is 4 is Billion years old records for a few hundred years don't cut it for me.










This basin can support a Super typhoon


Edited to include images




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not much happening here just a few scattered showers, winds are strong at times and partly sunny given the close proximity of faxai to the marianas.

It is because it is getting more compact and organized, which is a sign that Faxai is gradually intensifying. You probably had Cebu's weather the day before Haiyan [although Haiyan was a violent typhoon and Cebu's weather was overcast, it still is a representation of your weather] and Faxai is moving east, away from Guam.

[euro6208]

With every new release of JTWC warnings, the closest point of approach keeps shrinking!

Only 208 miles from Anderson Air Force Base on north side of island which is near where i live also...

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 125 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, THEREFORE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A MINOR WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[stormkite]

stay safe euro6208

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Starting to rapidly organize.

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 MAR 2014 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 9:39:31 N Lon : 148:14:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.6mb/ 53.0kt

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Center relocated and the system is disorganized and so it weakened to 50 kts. If this lifts north, it will encounter lesser shear and intensify further. If it moves west or south, the storm will continue to weaken.

[euro6208]

TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE
WEST OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
021141Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 021056Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 40 TO
45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 03W APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR EXTENSION
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO IMPINGING WESTERLY FLOW AND THE STR RE-
ORIENTS POLEWARD. AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST, TS 03W IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS DUE TO WEAK VWS AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLIES SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS FAXAI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY FLOW, POLEWARD OF
THE STR AXIS. TS 03W SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
NEAR TAU 72 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SHORT-TERM MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: THE POSITION IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE, THE LLCC WAS ASSESSED FARTHER WEST
FROM THE CURRENT POSITION.
NNNN


366
WTPQ31 PGUM 020947
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...9.6N 148.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
148.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THE TROPICAL
STORM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAXAI IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
GUAM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SAIPAN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO