WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

591
WTPQ31 PGUM 052144
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
800 AM CHST SUN APR 6 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH HEADING CLOSER TO ANGAUR PALAU...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...5.5N 137.8E

ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU AND
ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.8 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. PEIPAH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES PEIPAH CLOSE TO ANGAUR IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

STANKO


177
WTPQ81 PGUM 052319
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN APR 6 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH HEADING CLOSER TO ANGAUR PALAU...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN KOROR AND NEARBY ISLANDS INCLUDING ANGAUR...PELELIU...
BABELDAOB AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.8 DEGREES EAST.

ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU AND
ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES PEIPAH NEAR ANGAUR
IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU LATE TONIGHT. ISLANDS FROM KAYANGEL IN THE
NORTH TO ANGAUR IN THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GO INDOORS WHEN THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY OCCURS.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 16
HOURS FOR KOROR...BABELDAOB AND KAYANGEL. KEEP INFORMED OF THE
LATEST BULLETINS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EXECUTE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AS
INSTRUCTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THIS MAY INCLUDE
IDENTIFYING A SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ADDITION TO HAVING ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER TO
LAST ONE OR TWO DAYS AFTER THE STORM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
ANTICIPATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
40 MPH BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG EAST COASTAL SHORES THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 12 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FEET THIS EVENING. THE EAST COAST OF
BABELDAOB AND NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES OF KOROR AND ITS CONNECTED
ISLANDS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE SURGE. THE WORST CONDITIONS
WILL BE WITHIN 2 HOURS BEFORE OR AFTER HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR AT
1215 AM MONDAY MORNING PALAU TIME.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
KOROR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY RECEIVED NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODS ARE HIGH NEAR STREAMS AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR STEEP AREAS MADE OF CLAY...
ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE COMPACT ROAD.

...ANGAUR AND PELELIU...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 16 HOURS FOR
ANGAUR AND PELELIU. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
EXECUTE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AS INSTRUCTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THIS MAY INCLUDE IDENTIFYING A SHELTER WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ADDITION TO
HAVING ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER TO LAST TWO OR THREE DAYS AFTER THE
STORM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
ANTICIPATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND CHANGE
TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
RAPIDLY. THESE DAMAGING WINDS CAN DAMAGE WOODEN ROOFS...KNOCK DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS AND BLOW SHEET METAL THROUGH THE AIR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG EAST COASTAL SHORES THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 13 TO 16 FEET THIS EVENING. BRIEF COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE WITHIN
30 MILES OF THE CENTER. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE WITHIN 2 HOURS
BEFORE OR AFTER HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR AT 1215 AM MONDAY
MORNING PALAU TIME.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
KOROR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY RECEIVED NEARLY 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

CHAN

[stormkite]

05W PEIPAH 140406 0000 5.9N 137.2E WPAC 35 996

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu city landfall.....

[stormkite]

Cebu city landfall.....

EC likes South xtyphooncyclonex thats if it can even makes it that far.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu city landfall.....

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/819/eqty.png
EC likes South xtyphooncyclonex thats if it can even makes it that far.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm talking about the OFFICIAL forecast. You need to respect the official RSMC of our basin, and NEVER had forecast a typhoon. Very close to my city. It will move WNW due to a slight weakening or north movement of the STR.

Speaking of intensity, I'd go with below 55 kts. This could still go 40-50 kts due to lower shear and landfall is still on the 9th. Plus, the MJO could also help fuel this storm if this is still alive by then.


Below is an OFFICIAL forecast provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center [RSMC] of the basin, Japan Meteorological Agency, of the western Pacific.
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20'(8.3°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Below is the track provided by the JMA.


JTWC


Both of them agree on a landfall anywhere but close to my city, Cebu.

[stormkite]

xtyphooncyclonex its all good NP cant wait for the Atlantic season to kick off.

(You need to respect the official RSMC of our basin} Thats exactly what i think myself to when the shem basin threads get mass postings with JTWC forecasts every day there is no need for it.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know if shear will ever relax until the expected landfall. If MJO was right on time to favor this region, the storm wouldn't have any of these issues but right now it looks to follow the footsteps of the first few cyclones in WPAC this year (Lingling, Kajiki, 04W)...


Deep convection is still favored to pop up near the center but it just doesn't seem to pull it altogether. Typical shear issue.

[dexterlabio]

Cebu city landfall.....

It's fortunate though it's not going to be a real howler like what the models were showing last week. Personally I would like the islands to get the rain...looks like Asia needs to prepare for drought this early because of El Nino's early progression..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu city landfall.....

It's fortunate though it's not going to be a real howler like what the models were showing last week. Personally I would like the islands to get the rain...looks like Asia needs to prepare for drought this early because of El Nino's early progression..

It's so hot here, with high's reaching 32C! We need now the rain, and this is actually a good thing and I don't expect devastation. We, Cebuanos, are always prepared. Thank God that this is weak!

[dexterlabio]

^Well, you just hope it does track that way...or there's still something left when it comes...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't know if shear will ever relax until the expected landfall. If MJO was right on time to favor this region, the storm wouldn't have any of these issues but right now it looks to follow the footsteps of the first few cyclones in WPAC this year (Lingling, Kajiki, 04W)...


Deep convection is still favored to pop up near the center but it just doesn't seem to pull it altogether. Typical shear issue.

There is decreasing shear over the Indian Ocean and the far Western Pacific, but away from Peipah. That's its only hope. When the MJO will come, so that means only if this slows down, the storm gets the timing of it [MJO] then it will improve its shape.

[euro6208]

Remains 35 knots and lashing the palauan islands...

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 060420Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TS
05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
C. THE MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE DISRUPTED AFTER TAU
72 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVE DURING THE
SAME PERIOD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Extremely sheared TD now. May not recover.

[euro6208]

25 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM
WEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062324Z SSMIS PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 05W REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRENDS IN
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
AGAIN BEEN REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN REDUCED FOR THE TAU 72 TO TAU 120 PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH A
SLOWDOWN IN CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST UKMET AND GFS RUNS
SUGGEST THAT TD 05W MAY STALL AND TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36. ECMWF
ALSO INDICATES A NEAR STALL AROUND TAU 36, BUT A WESTWARD TRACK
RESUMES IN LATER FORECAST TAUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK GIVEN ANALYSIS OF CONTINUOUS RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUPPORT OF THAT
SCENARIO. TD 05W SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE
NEAR TERM, BUT MAY INTENSIFY VERY SLIGHTLY AROUND TAU 36 DUE TO A
MINIMAL RELAXATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INDUCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.
DISSIPATION IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AT OR ABOVE THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS.
C. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MINDANAO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED POLEWARD TREND IN RECENT UKMET
AND GFS GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

indeed...warm spot showing up...looks to be very close to typhoon intensity...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hey, JMA did not yet downgrade to a TD! PLEASE change the title of the thread. JYwC is an unofficial agency, and please Read the rules.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just hope this becomes an LPA when it makes landfall in our area, BECAUSE we need more rain before the drought. Shear is very strong and will kill this storm.I should not be too bullish next time

Stormkite and wxman57 got points this time, although I, at first, disagreed. This will now just be a mess tomorrow. Sorry for being bullish guys....

[euro6208]

Palau should thank wind shear for preventing this to develop into a monster typhoon. Everything was there for it to be one but thank god shear was there...

I agree with wxman57 on this not recovering back to a TS. The philippines will still get plenty of rains...

PGTW and KNES has this at 1.5...

Barely surviving...

[euro6208]

latest forecast has peipah spending more time over water and making landfall south of tacloban city, area devastated by haiyan!

good thing though it won't be strong but rain and flooding will be the issue...



WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070849Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS THE STRUCTURE ON
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. ALTHOUGH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG (2O TO 30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MAY STRUGGLE TO ESTABLISH A STRONG OUTFLOW
MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY, THE SLOW MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF A
WEAKENING EXTENSION OF A STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE MODERATE
TO STRONG VWS, WHICH IS HINDERING ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR A MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS AS WELL AS CHANGES TO STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CAUSING SLOW TRACK SPEEDS IN THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR
TERM, BUT MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AROUND TAU 72 DUE TO A MINIMAL
RELAXATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INDUCED BY AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.
C. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MINDANAO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN AGREEMENT, INDICATING A POLEWARD SHIFT;
HOWEVER, A LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS STILL EXISTS,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Current low-level circulation center is at the new blob of convection. This may have a chance to get back to shape and be a tropical storm.

WE NOW HAVE 2 SCENARIOS.

Scenario 1: strong shear, more likely
PEIPAH intensifies slightly into a weak, 65 km/h tropical storm while moving towards the Philippines before weakening over the Visayan Islands and thereafter, dissipating because of shear.

Scenario 2: weakening shear due to MJO and stronger STR
PEIPAH slows down, then gets upgraded back to tropical storm status by the JTWC, again, while lingering over the East Philippine Sea then intensifying later into a severe tropical storm by the JMA before making landfall over South-Central Philippines.

==========================================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.