https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... FS&tau=240
xtyphooncyclonex multi models now have no interest over 30 knots.
WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: WPAC: 05W - Tropical Depression
Moderate easterly shear is hitting the depression. convection is displaced west of the center. JTWC is no longer forecasting it to become a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: 05W - Tropical Depression
Yep no longer forecast to become a typhoon in their 5 day forecast...
WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A 032221Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS INTO THE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND
HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TD 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TRACK SPEEDS IN THE JTWC FORECAST HAVE NOTABLY DECREASED AS
MULTIPLE CONSENSUS (CONW) MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED AND ADJUSTED FORECAST
TRACK SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
NOTABLY CHANGED AS THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO STAY VERTICALLY
STACKED AND IS NOW UNDER SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, EXPOSING THE LLCC. DUE
TO THIS AS WELL AS CHANGES TO DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT RATE HAS SLOWED AND
THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 72. ALTHOUGH SST AND OHC VALUES WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO LOW TO
MODERATE VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE STR AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO STRUGGLE TO ESTABLISH A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
TRACK DIRECTION, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED ISSUES INCLUDING
JGSM AND GFDN.
C. AFTER TAU 48, THREE TRACK SCENARIOS EMERGE: COAMPS-TC
INDICATES A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK; CONW, GFS, ECMWF, AND JENS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK; AND NAVGEM AND EGRR INDICATE AN
EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO PRIOR TO PALAU. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW AND HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND
ECMWF WHICH TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, EVENTUALLY TRACKING NEAR THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AND INTO THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH
3.A. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND GENERAL SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A 032221Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS INTO THE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND
HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TD 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TRACK SPEEDS IN THE JTWC FORECAST HAVE NOTABLY DECREASED AS
MULTIPLE CONSENSUS (CONW) MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED AND ADJUSTED FORECAST
TRACK SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
NOTABLY CHANGED AS THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO STAY VERTICALLY
STACKED AND IS NOW UNDER SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, EXPOSING THE LLCC. DUE
TO THIS AS WELL AS CHANGES TO DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT RATE HAS SLOWED AND
THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 72. ALTHOUGH SST AND OHC VALUES WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO LOW TO
MODERATE VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE STR AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO STRUGGLE TO ESTABLISH A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
TRACK DIRECTION, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED ISSUES INCLUDING
JGSM AND GFDN.
C. AFTER TAU 48, THREE TRACK SCENARIOS EMERGE: COAMPS-TC
INDICATES A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK; CONW, GFS, ECMWF, AND JENS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK; AND NAVGEM AND EGRR INDICATE AN
EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO PRIOR TO PALAU. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW AND HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND
ECMWF WHICH TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, EVENTUALLY TRACKING NEAR THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AND INTO THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH
3.A. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND GENERAL SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: 05W - Tropical Depression
735
WTPQ31 PGUM 040331 CCA
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
200 PM CHST FRI APR 4 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W FORWARD SPEED SLOWS DOWN...
CORRECTION TO WIND SPEED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...2.8N 144.3E
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 615 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 735 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.3 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS
MOTION WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.
$$
ZIOBRO
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: 05W - Tropical Depression
WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 629 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 040652Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC;
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED FRAGMENTED WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
RJTD. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
AND HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TD 05W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH
TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMO, WHICH DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK AND
RE-CURVE (AFTER TAU 72), THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON TRACK SPEED AS WELL, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, WHICH IS HINDERING
CONSOLIDATION. VWS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH
THE FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE VWS
SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. SST AND OHC
VALUES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TRACK SPEED AS WELL AS PEAK INTENSITY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, UKMO IS
THE SLOWEST MODEL AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72 IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EAST CHINA SEA. OTHER MODELS, NOTABLY ECMWF AND NAVGEM, SLOW THE
SYSTEM AS THEY WEAKEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. OVERALL, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS DUE TO ITS LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN TRACK SPEEDS. BY TAU 120, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS,
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
NWS GUAM:
THE BIG THOUGHT TODAY IS WHAT WILL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W DO.
MODELS BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR PALAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FROM JTWC IS A BIT SLOWER AND BRINGS IT
SOUTH OF KOROR ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
THE TWO IN THE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A BIT SHEARED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD MEAN A SLOW DOWN IN INTENSIFICATION
AND POSSIBLY A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM. A FEW OTHER
MODELS HINT THAT THE GFS MAY BE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAST AND
JTWC FORECAST MAY BE CLOSER TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL DEVELOPING HOWEVER AND THINGS COULD CHANGE. SINCE YAP IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS...BUT STILL COULD BE GUSTY BECAUSE OF INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOR PALAU SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND FOR YAP SATURDAY NIGHT
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 629 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 040652Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC;
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED FRAGMENTED WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
RJTD. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
AND HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TD 05W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH
TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMO, WHICH DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK AND
RE-CURVE (AFTER TAU 72), THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT ON TRACK SPEED AS WELL, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, WHICH IS HINDERING
CONSOLIDATION. VWS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH
THE FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE VWS
SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. SST AND OHC
VALUES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TRACK SPEED AS WELL AS PEAK INTENSITY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, UKMO IS
THE SLOWEST MODEL AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72 IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EAST CHINA SEA. OTHER MODELS, NOTABLY ECMWF AND NAVGEM, SLOW THE
SYSTEM AS THEY WEAKEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. OVERALL, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS DUE TO ITS LOW LATITUDE TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN TRACK SPEEDS. BY TAU 120, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS,
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
NWS GUAM:
THE BIG THOUGHT TODAY IS WHAT WILL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W DO.
MODELS BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR PALAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE FORECAST FROM JTWC IS A BIT SLOWER AND BRINGS IT
SOUTH OF KOROR ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
THE TWO IN THE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A BIT SHEARED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD MEAN A SLOW DOWN IN INTENSIFICATION
AND POSSIBLY A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM. A FEW OTHER
MODELS HINT THAT THE GFS MAY BE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAST AND
JTWC FORECAST MAY BE CLOSER TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL DEVELOPING HOWEVER AND THINGS COULD CHANGE. SINCE YAP IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS...BUT STILL COULD BE GUSTY BECAUSE OF INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOR PALAU SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND FOR YAP SATURDAY NIGHT
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: 05W - Tropical Depression
There goes the 1997 comparison 
I honestly thought it would be this year's Isa or something, but then it made me think that each year is unique regardless of how they are alike in many ways... The bullish ECMWF/GFS runs caught me hah.
I honestly thought it would be this year's Isa or something, but then it made me think that each year is unique regardless of how they are alike in many ways... The bullish ECMWF/GFS runs caught me hah.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Meow
Now this is Tropical Storm Peipah.
TS 1404 (PEIPAH)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 5 April 2014
<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N3°50'(3.8°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more W390km(210NM)
E280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°35'(4.6°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°35'(5.6°)
E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°25'(6.4°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°55'(6.9°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
TS 1404 (PEIPAH)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 5 April 2014
<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N3°50'(3.8°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more W390km(210NM)
E280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°35'(4.6°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°35'(5.6°)
E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°25'(6.4°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°55'(6.9°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
5th tropical storm of the year!
891
WTPQ31 PGUM 050125
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
11 AM CHST SAT APR 5 2014
...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
SUMMARY OF 10 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.3N 140.9E
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 685 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 785 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.9 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM PEIPAH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH VERY CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.
$$
ZIOBRO
891
WTPQ31 PGUM 050125
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
11 AM CHST SAT APR 5 2014
...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
SUMMARY OF 10 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.3N 140.9E
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 685 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 785 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.9 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM PEIPAH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH VERY CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.
$$
ZIOBRO
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:5th tropical storm of the year!
maybe you meant fourth? 04W/"Caloy" was only a tropical depression. Faxai was the last storm who made past TS strength.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
I don't know if it's just me or it's an eye feature forming under that ring of deep convection..? Quite impressive.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
dexterlabio wrote:euro6208 wrote:5th tropical storm of the year!
maybe you meant fourth? 04W/"Caloy" was only a tropical depression. Faxai was the last storm who made past TS strength.
yes you are right...
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
indeed...warm spot showing up...looks to be very close to typhoon intensity...
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MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.04.2014^M
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ANALYSED POSITION : 3.3N 145.0E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.04.2014 3.3N 145.0E WEAK
12UTC 04.04.2014 3.4N 143.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.04.2014 4.2N 142.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.04.2014 4.9N 140.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.04.2014 5.5N 139.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.04.2014 6.0N 138.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.04.2014 6.3N 137.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
05W PEIPAH 140405 0000 4.3N 140.9E WPAC 35 996
Sat-Pic clearly shows its sheared wont be suprised to see it decapitated.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E_STATIC=1
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.04.2014^M
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ANALYSED POSITION : 3.3N 145.0E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.04.2014 3.3N 145.0E WEAK
12UTC 04.04.2014 3.4N 143.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.04.2014 4.2N 142.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.04.2014 4.9N 140.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.04.2014 5.5N 139.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.04.2014 6.0N 138.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.04.2014 6.3N 137.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
05W PEIPAH 140405 0000 4.3N 140.9E WPAC 35 996
Sat-Pic clearly shows its sheared wont be suprised to see it decapitated.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E_STATIC=1
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
356
WTPQ31 PGUM 050355
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
2 PM CHST SAT APR 5 2014
...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
SUMMARY OF 1 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.6N 140.3E
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU...AND
ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 4.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.3 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM PEIPAH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH VERY CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
PM.
$$
ZIOBRO
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
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On ascat appearance elongated and 30 knots at best. Dry air wrapping in now to IMO.
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051231Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE DISRUPTED AFTER 72 AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVE DURING THE
SAME PERIOD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051231Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE DISRUPTED AFTER 72 AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVE DURING THE
SAME PERIOD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
907
WTPQ31 PGUM 051503
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
200 AM CHST SUN APR 6 2014
...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH MOVING CLOSER TO KOROR PALAU...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.4N 137.9E
ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU AND
ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.9 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. PEIPAH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES PEIPAH CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 AM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
WTPQ31 PGUM 051503
TCPPQ1
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
200 AM CHST SUN APR 6 2014
...TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH MOVING CLOSER TO KOROR PALAU...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.4N 137.9E
ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL PALAU AND
ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.9 DEGREES EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. PEIPAH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES PEIPAH CLOSE TO KOROR SUNDAY EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 AM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
lashing palau...
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-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: WPAC: PEIPAH - Tropical Storm
Looks like a weak, sheared TS at most. Quite possibly a TD now.
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Hurricane_Luis
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