96S INVEST

[stormkite]

96S INVEST 140401 0000 7.4S 74.8E SHEM 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 72.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF TURNING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

[stormkite]

This invest is right in the MJO path in the sio atm.

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[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321Z APR 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 80.4E TO 22.6S 81.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A
040010Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 T0 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 157.6E.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

22S TWENTYTWO 140404 1800 16.8S 79.7E SHEM 35 996

[stormkite]

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.1S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 31.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 042358Z SSMIS PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE BASED ON STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA (041654Z) SHOWING
40 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF 22S HAS REMAINED GENERALLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS
EVIDENT IN THE 042358Z SSMIS IMAGE. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING,
PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD REPOSITIONING OF PAST
BEST TRACK POSITIONS AND A LARGER EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LAST 12
HOUR STORM MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED. INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
SYSTEM WILL INDUCE THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPIAL TRANSITION BY TAU
24. TRANSITION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
TYPICAL MODEL FORECAST TRENDS OBSERVED DURING RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z AND 060300Z.//



22S TWENTYTWO 140405 0000 17.6S 81.1E SHEM 40 993

[jaguarjace]

[jaguarjace]