SPAC: ITA - Tropical Cyclone

[stormkite]

Good work jaguarjace your above post local AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY updates are preferred others really have no relevance to local impacts on the general affected civilian QLDS / PNG community.

[richard-K2013]

It's almost stop moving...the speed of movement is 0 kt
The Australian Government Bereau of Meteorology expects it to become a Category 4 cyclone before it makes landfall.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 08/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 153.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 08/0600: 11.8S 152.9E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 976
+12: 08/1200: 11.6S 152.4E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 972
+18: 08/1800: 11.6S 151.7E: 055 [105]: 070 [130]: 973
+24: 09/0000: 11.7S 151.1E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 968
+36: 09/1200: 12.0S 149.5E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 965
+48: 10/0000: 12.5S 147.8E: 110 [200]: 085 [155]: 960
+60: 10/1200: 12.9S 146.5E: 130 [235]: 085 [155]: 959
+72: 11/0000: 13.7S 145.3E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 955
+96: 12/0000: 15.1S 143.3E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 990
+120: 13/0000: 16.7S 142.9E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1001

[Hurricane_Luis]

That JTWC Forecast is a little misleading, models clearly have it moving north of Cape Melville.

But here is the new on from the BoM.



IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 08/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 152.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D4.5/4.5/S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 08/1200: 11.7S 152.4E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 978
+12: 08/1800: 11.7S 151.7E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 975
+18: 09/0000: 11.8S 151.0E: 055 [105]: 070 [130]: 975
+24: 09/0600: 11.9S 150.2E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 971
+36: 09/1800: 12.4S 148.2E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 968
+48: 10/0600: 12.8S 146.4E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 957
+60: 10/1800: 13.4S 145.2E: 130 [235]: 100 [185]: 947
+72: 11/0600: 14.1S 143.9E: 145 [270]: 095 [175]: 952
+96: 12/0600: 16.0S 142.5E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 13/0600: 18.2S 144.5E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Using EMBD Centre with a 0.7 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is
also 4.5, with no development evident in the past 6 hours.

TC Ita has commenced its expected westward track over the past few hours, though
the latest [06UTC] position fix is only fair. The mid level ridge over eastern
Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern
reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further inducing the westward
motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of
an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper
trough and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before
capturing the system and dragging it southwards over land. A much smaller
number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast
period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of
Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the moment.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system
is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be
favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high
terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term
and is unlikely to be well resolved by global models.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[RL3AO]

COAMPS was really ramping up a strong cyclone. Could be an interesting storm to watch the next few days.

[weatherwindow]

That JTWC Forecast is a little misleading, models clearly have it moving north of Cape Melville.

But here is the new on from the BoM.



IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 08/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 152.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D4.5/4.5/S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 08/1200: 11.7S 152.4E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 978
+12: 08/1800: 11.7S 151.7E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 975
+18: 09/0000: 11.8S 151.0E: 055 [105]: 070 [130]: 975
+24: 09/0600: 11.9S 150.2E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 971
+36: 09/1800: 12.4S 148.2E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 968
+48: 10/0600: 12.8S 146.4E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 957
+60: 10/1800: 13.4S 145.2E: 130 [235]: 100 [185]: 947
+72: 11/0600: 14.1S 143.9E: 145 [270]: 095 [175]: 952
+96: 12/0600: 16.0S 142.5E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 13/0600: 18.2S 144.5E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Using EMBD Centre with a 0.7 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is
also 4.5, with no development evident in the past 6 hours.

TC Ita has commenced its expected westward track over the past few hours, though
the latest [06UTC] position fix is only fair. The mid level ridge over eastern
Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern
reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further inducing the westward
motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of
an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper
trough and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before
capturing the system and dragging it southwards over land. A much smaller
number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast
period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of
Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the mo

Good morning, HL...the latest JTWC forecast has taken a decidedly different tack. It has apparently given more weight to the GFS, GEM et al solutions and calls for a gentle recurve along the Queensland coast after a possible landfall north of Cape Melville. The Euro and UKMET, calling for a stronger ridge and more westerly motion after approaching the QLD coast, are considered outliers and have been discounted. If verified, the JTWC forecast presents a significant threat to the wide swath of the QLD coast with possible Cat3/Cat4(Au) conditions at initial landfall and slowly weakening to possible Cat 1(Au) as it SSE along the QLD coast.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 314web.txt

[stormkite]

MJO's back with vengeance .


RSMC 10 MIN
2014APR09 033200 3.9 981.5 +3.9 63.0

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Dangerous cyclone shaping up forecast has a strong category 3 (SSHS) skirting the coastline.

REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 151.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 081707Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 23P HAS TRACKED WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE AN UNLIKELY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND PROVIDE A POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.// NNNN

[stormkite]

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


[u]TROPICAL CYCLONE AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE[/u]
at: 0646 UTC 09/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is situated in a low vertical wind shear environment
with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. These atmospheric and
oceanographic conditions are expected to remain fairly constant along Ita's
current forecast track towards the far north Queensland coast and should allow
the system to intensify during Thursday and Friday. In the short term,
intensification may be difficult for Ita today due to the systems proximity to
Papua New Guinea.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving in a general westwards direction
under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending from Queensland into the
central Coral Sea. Ita is expected to continue moving in this general direction
over the next couple of days and at this stage it is expected to cross the far
north Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery late Friday.
There is a fair degree of uncertainty in the exact track Ita will take closer to
the coast with the computer model guidance varying depending on the strength and
orientation of the mid-level ridge that extends across the central Coral Sea by
Friday.

[richard-K2013]

It seems that Ita is going to organize its eyewall, and the convection around the center is getting deeper.
BoM expect it will intensify in the next 2 days before it makes landfall, and become a Category 4 (Australia Cyclone scale) due to the favorable environment that low wind shear and high sea surface temperature(greater than 28 degrees celsius).

[mrbagyo]

Seems like Ita's having a difficulty popping her eye out... 2 days ago, I saw an eye like feature but it suddenly disappeared.
Let's see if she can get it right this time around.

[stormkite]

Eyewall looks to be at about 98% complete.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[richard-K2013]

Well, the eyewall is about to complete.

[stormkite]

Well, the eyewall is about to complete.

http://www.bellmereweather.com/SatPics-MtSat.asp

Now its vertically stacked wont be surprised if ITA reaches Cat5 intensity over night.
Will be a absolute disaster for Cairns if it runs the forecast GFS track.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... swpac.html


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mtsat.html


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

up to 90 knots! category 2! (1min)

23P ITA 140409 1200 11.4S 149.3E SHEM 90 956

[Hurricane_Luis]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita

[stormkite]

[richard-K2013]

Let's see the latest VIS Satellite Image. Now, Ita has a beatiful eye.
BoM expects her to become a Category 4 tropical cyclone or even Category 5...



IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0058 UTC 10/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 147.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/0600: 12.4S 147.2E: 025 [045]: 090 [165]: 955
+12: 10/1200: 12.7S 146.5E: 035 [065]: 095 [175]: 950
+18: 10/1800: 13.2S 146.1E: 050 [090]: 100 [185]: 944
+24: 11/0000: 13.7S 145.6E: 060 [115]: 105 [195]: 940
+36: 11/1200: 14.7S 144.8E: 080 [150]: 100 [180]: 942
+48: 12/0000: 15.6S 144.1E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 967
+60: 12/1200: 16.5S 144.1E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 13/0000: 17.5S 144.9E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 999
+96: 14/0000: 18.7S 148.4E: 185 [340]: 030 [055]: 1000
+120: 15/0000: 20.3S 151.6E: 270 [500]: 040 [070]: 994

REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with
a white surround and a subtraction of 1.0 for a black eye combined with a white
surround, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT are 6.0 and 5.5 respectively.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has shown signs of intensifying over the last few
hours with warming beginning to occur in the middle of cirrus shield that has
been covering the system over much of the last 12 hours. The system remains
situated in a low vertical wind shear environment with sea surface temperatures
greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the
system, which should allow intensification into a category 4 to occur today. The
STIPS guidance has capped the intensity of the system to no more than 105 knots
[1 minute], but intensification into a category 5 cannot be ruled out prior to
landfall.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up
over the Solomon Islands. The mid-level ridge is expected to erode into Friday,
which should then lead to the system developing a southwest track prior to
landfall along the far north Queensland coast. Most of the global computer
models are now indicating that the system will cross the far north Queensland
coast late Friday between Cape Sidmouth and Cooktown.

[euro6208]

23P ITA 140410 0000 12.1S 147.9E SHEM 100 948

Now a Major cyclone (SSHS) with winds of 100 knots!

[Ntxw]

Beauty

[stormkite]

RSMC 10 min
2014APR10 013200 4.8 962.4 +3.6 84.8