WPAC: INVEST 98W

[cycloneye]

New invest pops up. I think part of what was ex97W is this area of interest.

98W INVEST 140413 0600 5.0N 152.0E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

[stormkite]

Think this may get captured by the trough and be swept in a NE track.




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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I have a feeling that this would intensify to at least a tropical storm if a trough appears and follows a recurve track because of the more favorable conditions in its path. If the shear is below 10 knots and the air is moist enough, it could possibly intensify to at least a Severe Tropical Storm, or maybe a typhoon. This could help in the warming of the Pacific Equatorial Temperatures and could cause a strong WWB.

PERSONAL FORECAST DISCLAIMER:
The posts in this forum ARE NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[euro6208]

Euro showing a low pressure area that remains weak until dissipation east of the P.I. while GFS also shows a LP maybe a TD meandering near guam but doesn't do much until dissipation. Just a rainmaker if it verifies for us here.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For the past few runs, GFS has been showing a strong tropical storm. Meanwhile, CMC shows a weak TD and NAVGEM shows a tropical storm.

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 140415 1800 10.0N 149.3E WPAC 15 1010

[stormkite]

Fim starting to like 98W it in there recent modeling.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow 2 storms. 1 TS and 1 TY...

[stormkite]

chuuck loop looks like 98 trying hard to get some initial organizing with faint banding starting in the sat-pic
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/satellite.php


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 140416 1200 9.5N 149.5E WPAC 15 1010

Located southeast of guam and it seems to be slowly consolidating...


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT
FRAGMENTED, BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 161022Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Few hours ago:


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED, ALTHOUGH FULLY EXPOSED,
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. A 162345Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY
SHOWS THE DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS POOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
DEPICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT DUE TO THE
DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N
148.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FLANKS. AN 180350Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LIMITED
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL BROADENED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE DEVOLVING STRUCTURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[stormkite]

Should be upgraded rapidly improving by the hour now in a lower wind shear area
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FLARING AHEAD OF A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE
ISLAND OF YAP. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT SWATHS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED, WITH 5-15 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM YAP INDICATES VARIABLE
WINDS AT 4 KNOTS SUSTAINED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED TOWARD DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE LLCC TO BECOME COUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
AND TC GENESIS INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Love these long detailed discussions!

I wouldn't be surprised if we get to our 6th TC in a few days even GFS showing this to reach the philippines making landfall around southern luzon but weak...rain will be the issue here...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

JMA has now a TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 136E WEST SLOWLY

[euro6208]

Another that fails to develop...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has this barely a TD.