SPAC: INVEST 91P

[supercane4867]

[euro6208]

91P INVEST 140421 1800 6.9S 131.9E SHEM 15 1010

not much change...

[stormkite]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S 132.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 212359Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND
BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE IS BROAD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.




GFS forecast model.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S
132.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND INCREASED SYMMETRY.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 23 April 2014
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 April 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak Tropical Low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea to the north of
the region. The low is expected to remain weak and enter the Northern Region
tomorrow as it moves slowly southwards while remaining in the Arafura Sea over
the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low

[mrbagyo]

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 26 April 2014
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 29 April 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located about 60 kilometres north northwest
of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to remain weak and slow moving before moving
west from Sunday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low
Tuesday: Very Low