WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Huge blowup of convection have just obscured the eye...

Very well organized storm with excellent outflow. Now if it can aligned it's eye more in the deep convection...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC lowered its forecast peak to 65 knots. Despite that, rapid intensification is still continuing. Tapah is very well organized.

[euro6208]

Eye east of saipan...

[euro6208]

JTWC's 55 knots correspond to 3.5 BUT KNES and ADT has 4.5 and 4.4!

Can't deny an eye on radar this should become a typhoon in the next warning...



JMA is even lower at 40 knots...What are they seeing?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 282118
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
800 AM CHST TUE APR 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM TAPAH SPEEDING UP TOWARD THE NORTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH TO
73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. A TYPHOON
WATCH MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.3N 147.5E

ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W)
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH IS MOVING NORTH AT 13 MPH. TAPAH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TAPAH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W.AYDLETT

[Kingarabian]

Mid level eye?

ADT doesn't show it fully stacked, vertically.

[stormkite]

06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974
TYPHOON



"Pocket rocket"

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA has upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm Tapah. I can't post the warning because I'm using my phone.

[stormkite]

JMA has upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm Tapah. I can't post the warning because I'm using my phone.

What DA 65 KNOTS not a Typhoon i missing something here.?

06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA has upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm Tapah. I can't post the warning because I'm using my phone.

What DA 65 KNOTS not a Typhoon i missing something here.?

06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974

JMA is just very conservative only at 50 kts while JTWC has it at 65 kts, but Tapah is not yet officially a typhoon. In fact, 65 kts of JTWC is more reasonable but their upgrade is unofficial.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Probably JMA forecasters don't like how the storm is shaped but there is an eye feature. They should upgrade it soon.

[stormkite]

just look at the sat-pic tells the story that's a cat1 on the way up.its stacked
That's why its annoying following system's in the wespac to many chief's its in USA territory ATM ?

TXPQ23 KNES 282114
TCSWNP

A. 06W (TAPAH)

B. 28/2032Z

C. 15.1N

D. 147.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH DT=4.5 BASED ON 14/10
BANDING. MET ON RAPID CURVE IS 4.0 BUT PAT=4.5. SYSTEM SHOWED GOOD EYE
IN MI DATA. FT IS BASED ON DT.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Upgraded to our 2nd typhoon for the 2014 typhoon season!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 290300
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
200 PM CHST TUE APR 29 2014

...TAPAH INTENSIFIES TO TYPHOON STRENGTH EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.1N 147.4E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.4 DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON TAPAH IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH. TAPAH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WHILE MAINTAINING
CURRENT FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED 75 MPH. TYPHOON TAPAH IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS


Prognostic Reasoning for Tapah...

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, PUNCTUATED BY THE
APPEARANCE OF A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRELUDE TO THE FORMATION OF AN EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 282214Z SSMI-S PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 282230Z DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 06W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN MORE NORTHWARD. THERE IS A 12-18 HOUR
WINDOW OF CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BEGIN TO ERODE
THE CYCLONE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY TAPAH IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING
VWS, DECREASING SSTS, AND INTERACTION WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT BY TAU 96. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS LAID EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET LESS LIKELY
WESTWARD OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

JMA has upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm Tapah. I can't post the warning because I'm using my phone.

What DA 65 KNOTS not a Typhoon i missing something here.?

06W TAPAH 140429 0000 15.7N 147.4E WPAC 65 974

JMA is just very conservative only at 50 kts while JTWC has it at 65 kts, but Tapah is not yet officially a typhoon. In fact, 65 kts of JTWC is more reasonable but their upgrade is unofficial.

65 knots is JTWC's best track for rapid update while JMA is once again slow...

Not official but this is a typhoon.

NWS Guam is leaning more to JTWC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Upgraded to our 2nd typhoon for the 2014 typhoon season!

Not yet. But I do agree that this should be upgraded to a typhoon by JMA.

[euro6208]

just look at the sat-pic tells the story that's a cat1 on the way up.its stacked
That's why its annoying following system's in the wespac to many chief's its in USA territory ATM ?

TXPQ23 KNES 282114
TCSWNP

A. 06W (TAPAH)

B. 28/2032Z

C. 15.1N

D. 147.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH DT=4.5 BASED ON 14/10
BANDING. MET ON RAPID CURVE IS 4.0 BUT PAT=4.5. SYSTEM SHOWED GOOD EYE
IN MI DATA. FT IS BASED ON DT.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What's in U.S Territory?

Well JTWC/NOAA/NWS and many other websites we use for tracking, models (GFS, NOGAPS), SST, and Dvorak, ETC. like that KNES dvorak you posted are based in the U.S. Go to different sites and you will see them listing Tapah as a Typhoon right now.

JMA's only presence is to the asian countries in the WPAC where they even have their own Meteorological Agency.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to our 2nd typhoon for the 2014 typhoon season!

Not yet. But I do agree that this should be upgraded to a typhoon by JMA.

You must know that both agencies uses different measures of winds 1 and 10 min.

Of course 1 min always lead the conservative 10 min.

It's not like they use the same.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should be upgraded only to 55 knots or more by JMA but also remember that 10 min winds are 1.13 times slower than 1 min.

[stormkite]

JMA's only presence is to the asian countries in the WPAC where they even have their own Meteorological Agency

Everyone knows that here.

What i meant is Guam is US Territory as far as i know by my way of thinking its a cat1 .If it was close to japan prolly been upgraded yesterday by the JMA .