EPAC: INVEST 90E

[stormkite]

The low is deepening its looking tighter on the loop atm. Like most of you here i have seen many systems intensify as they near land could be a dark horse this system.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

It's IMO getting better organized. Just needs convection.

Agreed, and more convection is forming closer or over the center. For the first time, dark greys are showing up on AVN:



Here is the MPHI for the Epac right now, very impressive because usually this type of 30ºC contour doesn't occur until mid-late May and then for no reason always decreases and shrinks by June onwards...

[supercane4867]

Here is the TCFA

[Yellow Evan]

It's IMO getting better organized. Just needs convection.

Agreed, and more convection is forming closer or over the center. For the first time, dark greys are showing up on AVN:



Here is the MPHI for the Epac right now, very impressive because usually this type of 30ºC contour doesn't occur until mid-late May and then for no reason always decreases and shrinks by June onwards...

The reason you get 30C waters off the coast of MX at this time of the year is because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_H ... _Warm_Pool Though it sometimes vanishes due to La Nina-conditions/cold PDO after June. During El Nino years like 2009, it doesn't. What's more impressive IMO though is the extent of the 29C waters.

[Kingarabian]

Wrapping around very nicely, decent outflow.

Just needs more deep convection.




Really appears to be on its way to a depression. Needs to consolidate a bit more.

[euro6208]

Similiar to a large wpac monsoon disturbance which likely will limit it's strengthening. rains and flooding will be the issue where ever this goes.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

The reason you get 30C waters off the coast of MX at this time of the year is because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_H ... _Warm_Pool Though it sometimes vanishes due to La Nina-conditions/cold PDO after June. During El Nino years like 2009, it doesn't. What's more impressive IMO though is the extent of the 29C waters.

Thanks for the link, never knew that all these years. The extent of those warm waters also caught my attention, very rare.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


Its sitting in very favorable conditions currently based on the SHIPS 00z output. Its like August in the spot. Shear goes from 5 kt currently to 71 kt 120 hours from now .

[Kingarabian]

Up to 1.5.

[hurricanes1234]

I am not sure if it'll rapidly intensify because of the limited time it has. But if it develops quickly, I think it might be able to become a moderate tropical storm or something. I am just shocked that the season could start 8 days before time if this forms.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT IT STILL LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM PDT
TODAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 07 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N107W ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM OF THE N
SEMICIRCLE. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED PEAK
WINDS AROUND 25 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 11 FT. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. GRIDDED DATA FOR
THIS SYSTEM ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH
WINDS FROM THE GFS AND SEAS FROM THE MWW3. THE ECMWF WAS
CONSIDERED...BUT NOT USED...AS THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE
UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL AND FORECAST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW.

[Nimbus]

Thats a nice convective burst near the center of rotation. I'd give it more than a 50 percent chance of developing unless the Thursday shear picks up.

[hurricanes1234]

I am pessimistic about this developing now. It looks elongated on satellite imagery and there hasn't been any other change since this morning. Plus, shear is going to increase tomorrow and I personally doubt it will have enough time to consolidate if it still lacks a well-defined center and has 24 hours or less. If it does develop, I don't see it becoming more than a depression.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I agree that it is likely done. It had its chance IMO, just a little too much shear, and now while its looks a little better it is too little too late IMO.

[Nimbus]

The shear is providing lots of lift for the convection but looks about ready to blow the tops off.

[hurricanes1234]

It's accelerating towards the coast. I think it's over. Has that classic degenerative look to it, even though convection is better.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Visible satellite loops show a marked improvement in organization this afternoon, with a single center of circulation (that is nowhere near as elongated as earlier according to the UW-CIMSS vorticity product). Thunderstorm activity is gaining strength and coverage as well, though the LLC remains on the southern side of this burst. Shear is now only marginally favorable and will become unfavorable tomorrow.

We'll see what the NHC does. It's a marginal case.

[Yellow Evan]

Visible satellite loops show a marked improvement in organization this afternoon, with a single center of circulation (that is nowhere near as elongated as earlier according to the UW-CIMSS vorticity product). Thunderstorm activity is gaining strength and coverage as well, though the LLC remains on the southern side of this burst. Shear is now only marginally favorable and will become unfavorable tomorrow.

We'll see what the NHC does. It's a marginal case.

I'd be inclined to think they'll not upgrade it given it is an off-season system. Still, it is somewhat of a land threat.

[supercane4867]

TAFB:T2.0 supports TD intensity
EP, 90, 201405080000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1610N, 10560W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JL, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

[Riptide]

Outflow is expansive and extends out towards the Eastern GOM. This might be one of the post-season upgrade systems, and it would be nice to break some more records.