EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms
located several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is
associated with an elongated area of low pressure. Development of
this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next
day or two. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[euro6208]

Under a TCFA but only a LOW chance to develop. Probrably they don't want to increase the potential due to it's far location from any landmass with no harm to humans and if upgraded will just be weak...

[euro6208]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182328
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms
located several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is
associated with an elongated area of low pressure. Development of
this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next
day or two. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

Let's compare both...

WTPN21 PHNC 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 109.5W TO 11.8N 116.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 109.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180504Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WHILE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY REMAINED
RELATIVELY WEAK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LOW (05 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Well it's lost almost all its convection now. It's nothing but some sad looking clouds and it certainly looks worse than any 30 knot invest I can remember. It looks like a random and disorganized patch of clouds right now, and I personally don't see this developing at all unless conditions improve. After all, storms do not form this far out and at this low latitude in May. However, I am not an expert, so maybe they are seeing something I can't, and don't use this as official.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized shower activity. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it
moves westward or west-northwestward. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[stormkite]

Nada… Jack… Zip… Zilch

[hurricanes1234]

Nada… Jack… Zip… Zilch

I agree, time to move on to something worthwhile.

As of this morning, on EPAC imagery, it's hard for me to recognise 91E. There isn't much there with the exception of a few leftover clouds. There is also no organisation, no banding, nothing characteristic of an invest with potential to develop.

[Yellow Evan]

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
moving slowly westward. Associated shower activity remains
disorganized, and development of this system is becoming less
likely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No queda nada más cierto desorden. Once used to be an organizing disturbance turns out to be nothing left. Adios! At least I expected something less than 45 knots, 15 knots.

[cycloneye]

Next.

An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
moving little. Associated shower activity has decreased
significantly this morning, and development of this system is
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Goodbye 91E, you became as much as 90E did.