EPAC: INVEST 91E

[cycloneye]

91, 2014051518, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1003W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014051600, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1007W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014051606, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1011W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014051612, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1015W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014051618, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1019W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 65, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[hurricanes1234]

It's starting to look a little like Pewa last year when it was strengthening in the central Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

From seasonal thread:

So according to the latest run, this area may bust but another one may form that isn't there yet?

That run was the Euro, not the GFS. This origin is likely going to be complicated, given that it is an ITCZ breakdown. Hence why a number of tracks have been shown by models.



Brings it to 994 mbar. Also shows it coming quite close to land.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%-50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system has developed
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized over the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanes1234]

Already at medium chance. It's organising quickly. If this is to form, I'd estimate development by Monday and a peak a few days later somewhere as a strong tropical storm/weak Category 1.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 update:

91, 2014051700, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1023W, 25, 1007, LO

[hurricanes1234]

The 00:00 update:

91, 2014051700, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1023W, 25, 1007, LO

The pressure dropped by 1 hPa. I thought the best track updates were being terminated?

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 update:

91, 2014051700, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1023W, 25, 1007, LO

The pressure dropped by 1 hPa. I thought the best track updates were being terminated?

Making public the renumbering of invests is what has ended. Thread at Talking Tropics forum about this topic

[Kingarabian]

New NHC format? No Caps anymore.

[hurricanes1234]

New NHC format? No Caps anymore.

Yes, I noticed that in an outlook yesterday. They did say somewhere on Storm2k (I think so) that the discussions would have no caps.

[Yellow Evan]

New NHC format? No Caps anymore.

Yes, I noticed that in an outlook yesterday. They did say somewhere on Storm2k (I think so) that the discussions would have no caps.

Why are the TWD's still using caps though?

[hurricanes1234]

New NHC format? No Caps anymore.

Yes, I noticed that in an outlook yesterday. They did say somewhere on Storm2k (I think so) that the discussions would have no caps.

Why are the TWD's still using caps though?

I only saw the tropical cyclone discussions being in sentence case. I didn't see anything about the tropical weather discussions.

Anyway, back to 91E, it is certainly consolidating now, it just needs more convection.

[Yellow Evan]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

1. A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has
changed little during the past several hours, environmental
conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some
development to occur during the next few days while the system
drifts westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Shows a minimal hurricane near MX.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days, but beyond that
time environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

If conditions are going to become hostile in a couple of days, then there is no reason for me to think that we will be seeing anything beyond a weak to moderate tropical storm, if it develops.

[Yellow Evan]

12z and 6z GFs have dropped this.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Development of this system
during the next couple of days is likely to be slow to occur.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

It looks like Amanda will not form from this area.

[hurricanes1234]

Same as 90E, I am sure it will bust. We shall wait until something else pops up in the next few weeks.