NIO: Depression BOB 02 (92B)

[stormkite]

92B INVEST 140519 0600 13.2N 91.4E IO 15 1010

[stormkite]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 19-05-2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
BAY BETWEEN LAT 8.0°N TO 16.0°N EAST OF LONG 85.0°E ANDAMAN SEA & BAY
ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA (.)
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER REST EASTCENTRAL BAY GULF OF MARTABAN (.)
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION OVER REST BAY(.)
ARABIAN SEA :-
BROKEN MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KARNATAKA COAST BETWEEN LAT 10.5°N TO 14.0°N
LONG 73.0°E TO 75.0°E (.)
RIDGE LINE:-
0
AT 200 hPa RIDGE LINE LIES ALONG 16.0 N OVER THE REGION.

[jaguarjace]

92B INVEST 140520 1800 14.9N 91.3E IO 25 1004


JTWC:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
91.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
201525Z AMSU IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jaguarjace]

TCFA Issued by JTWC


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210454Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 210357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOT) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERARE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

92B INVEST 140521 0600 16.1N 91.4E IO 30 1000

[stormkite]

ascat suggests is already a cyclone




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

It is Depression BOB 02 by IMD now, and it may be a deep depression within 24 hours.

[jaguarjace]

It is Depression BOB 02 by IMD now, and it may be a deep depression within 24 hours.

Yep. Here's the National Bulletin from the IMD.

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST
Dated: 21.05.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB02/2014/02

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal

The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved northward and lay centred at 1130
hours IST of today, the 21st May 2014 near latitude 16.00 N and longitude 90.50 E, about 530 km
north-northwest of Port Blair, 600 km west-southwest of Yangon (Myanmar) and 630 km south-
southwest of Cox’s Bazaar (Bangladesh). It may intensify further into a deep depression during
next 24 hrs. It would move north-northeastwards towards Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh
coast during next 48 hrs.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places with isolated heavy
to very heavy falls over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs and isolated heavy
rainfall thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and
off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough to very rough
along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the same period.
Fishermen along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into
sea during next 48 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 21st May, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

[euro6208]

WTIO21 PGTW 220730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z MAY 14//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6N 92.3E TO 20.0N 91.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. A 220336Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOPPY STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. AN OLDER 220021Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION
IN THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAIN-FLAGGED AND
NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230730Z.//
NNNN

ascat suggests is already a cyclone

[euro6208]

PGTW and KNES reporting 1.0.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MY THOUGHTS ON THE SYSTEM

Conditions here are unfavorable, given that the region is filled moderate to high VWS. Not that likely to be the first cyclonic storm of the year. Peak strength would be at 25-50 kts in 3 minute sustained winds. This should spare Bangladesh and most of Myanmar. An ENE-NE track would occur as a HPA is NW of the system. Probably coastal border of Thailand and SE Myanmar would be hit but as a weak and disorganized system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the IMD products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Depression 02B is not looking good, may have some banding but the overall system is sheared.

[stormkite]

If your about Alyono like your opinion please on this ascat tacking into account its over 24 hours ago looked open and shut at the time to me.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PGTW and KNES reporting 1.0.

1.0 means weak TD. Should be lower and the storm is really disorganized right now. I rarely discover any system which looks like this.


Earlier today, the invest looked liked a mid-end TD but is currently a mess per imagery.

[Alyono]

this is a borderline system. Arguments for and against upgrading it

[xtyphooncyclonex]

While 92E was upgraded to TD status in the EPac, meanwhile 92B in the NIO...

TCFA CANCELLED.

WTIO21 PGTW 230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z MAY 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 220730). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
16.2N 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 222238Z SSMIS PASS.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
RENDERING THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
TIME FRAME UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND CONSIDERING
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

and JT is out to lunch

all satellite data indicate this is very close to cyclone intensity

they really need to get off of their over reliance on Dvorak estimates (which are not always the best either) and look at more ground truth data

[Meow]

and JT is out to lunch

all satellite data indicate this is very close to cyclone intensity

they really need to get off of their over reliance on Dvorak estimates (which are not always the best either) and look at more ground truth data

It would be treated like Shanshan in the northwest Pacific.

[richard-K2013]

In this satellite animation, the convecvtions is being sheared to west of the system. Now, the center is almost exposed.

[Steve820]

Well, since it's being sheared, I don't think it'll strengthen to a cyclonic storm and earn a name, but who knows?