EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

#101 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:05 pm

One thing is for sure is it will rack up some more ACE units for EPAC.

#102 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:If conditions are favorable enough, it will be interesting to see if this can intensify more than forecast.

Most likely well. i think they're being conservative because they don't know how fast it will move.

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hurricanes1234 · #103 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:10 pm

If the structure becomes compact, it would likely be able to intensify more. As the discussion stated, the only problem right now is the large size which often limits intensification to a slow rate, regardless of environmental conditions.

#104 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:12 pm

The band on the SW side is somewhat interesting.

#105 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:12 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:If the structure becomes compact, it would likely be able to intensify more. As the discussion stated, the only problem right now is the large size which often limits intensification to a slow rate, regardless of environmental conditions.

I agree.

#106 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:12 pm

RL3AO wrote:The band on the SW side is somewhat interesting.

What does banding like that indicate, if I may ask

?

#107 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The band on the SW side is somewhat interesting.

What does banding like that indicate, if I may ask ?

I'm not sure in this case.

#108 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:22 pm

Anyone know why the NRL TC page isn't working?

#109 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:46 pm

RL3AO wrote:Anyone know why the NRL TC page isn't working?

I believe it was website maintenance. It's up now.

#110 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:50 pm

I'm curious about the next 12 hours. It looks quite a bit more organized then it did 3 or 4 hours ago.

#111 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:56 pm

Latest radar.

#112 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
500 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 94.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...GIVEN ITS SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

hurricanes1234 · #113 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:35 pm

Now near tropical storm strength.

#114 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:38 pm

Appears to be becoming better organized. Deepest convection becoming closer to the center.

#115 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:47 pm

A fresh and perfect SSMIS pass shows that construction of the inner core is in the works...

#116 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:47 pm

EP, 02, 2014060300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 942W, 30, 1001, TD

Steve820 · #117 Postby **Steve820** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:24 pm

I have a rapid intensification feeling for this storm. Uh oh, not good for southern Mexico/Guatemala! Hopefully the storm won't be a stronger version of Agatha (2010). Personally, I forecast a peak of around 75-90 mph to occur, with an outside shot of Category 2 strength. BTW, I tried going to the NHC website all this afternoon but it looks like it doesn't work. Might be site maintenance or something?

zeehag · #118 Postby **zeehag** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:34 pm

so if it rapidly intensifies as it heads int he direction it is headed, could perhaps the models i use for sail passages, that showed me this crossing over the tehuantepec could have been correct, kinda.... ?

TheStormExpert · #119 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:59 pm

Looking at the NHC's track for TD Two-E if it sits around and doesn't make landfall until mid/late Saturday like the NHC is forecasting I can't see why this couldn't at the very least become a hurricane. May even have a very slight outside shot at major status but that seems like a <10% chance of happening.

#120 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:00 pm

Well, the storms is move much faster than expected. GFS may be right here.

EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

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