ATL: INVEST 90L

[tailgater]

This center we see might be rotating around a larger broader low as it seems to have moved wnw at first then west and now more sw. Or it may just be headed back across Medico.
Honestly I haven't been watching it that close.

[cycloneye]

So far no wind shifts found.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
center of a well-defined low pressure system is located along the
coast of eastern Mexico near Vera Cruz. Associated shower activity
has been gradually increasing over the past few hours, and an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance
has reported surface winds of 30 to 35 mph to the northeast and
east of the center thus far. If thunderstorm activity persists near
the low center, a tropical depression could still form before the
system moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico later tonight and
tomorrow. Whether or not a tropical depression forms, this
disturbance will produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Good winds at last set at SFMR and appear unflagged.

234430 1902N 09538W 9722 00314 0082 +223 +223 093030 031 053 024 00
234500 1903N 09540W 9733 00303 0083 +222 +222 090028 030 055 020 00

[SouthDadeFish]

Good winds at last set at SMFR and appear unflagged.

Those SFMR readings seem very questionable since they are much higher than the flight-level winds. Also, SFMR can have a hard time in shallow waters, further suggesting those reports are too high.

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely seems to be that any "center" made landfall already.

[Hammy]

Good winds at last set at SMFR and appear unflagged.

Those SFMR readings seem very questionable since they are much higher than the flight-level winds. Also, SFMR can have a hard time in shallow waters, further suggesting those reports are too high.

There is precedent with the higher winds, as last year Gabrielle's intensity was set at 50kts despite flight level winds being lower, and also in an area with less convection, so this could support at least very low-end storm intensity.

[wxman57]

The center is already inland, which is why the plane isn't finding any wind shifts.

[TheAustinMan]

On a separate discussion there was the idea that the recon flight was probably to gather data on a weakening system, which could be used to refine inland decay models, especially with systems dissipating on the coasts of the Bay of Campeche. Would probably be a bit more effective with more land-based observation stations and maybe if the flight was a little earlier but who knows. Data on landfalling storms is always useful.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,what is fishie? The sfmr data?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TD?

AL, 90, 2014060700, , BEST, 0, 191N, 961W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland. However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart

[Hammy]

So did they decide to upgrade then change their minds?

[AdamFirst]

So did they decide to upgrade then change their minds?

I believe they were ready to, but since the center is on land maybe they called it off?

[Steve820]

So did they decide to upgrade then change their minds?

I believe they were ready to, but since the center is on land maybe they called it off?

Yeah, I think that's what happened. I really wanted to see a depression out of this, but looks like it won't be upgraded now. With the chances down to 50%, looks like Arthur might have to come a bit later I guess. I really hope this year won't be an inactive one, but with the El Nino and what happened in the 2013 season, I won't hold my breath.

[TheStormExpert]

A Special TWO for a drowngrade in development chances? That's new, it'll be interesting how this season turns out. 90L had potential but that blasted shear monster was just giving it a hard time to take advantage of what is known to be the most favorable region for development in the N. Atlantic Basin (BoC).

[AdamFirst]

They're keeping the chances at medium range because it is supposed to meander along the coastline - if it gets back over water it could be classified then

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure
system has remained nearly stationary near Vera Cruz, Mexico. During
the past few hours, associated thunderstorm activity has decreased
significantly, and unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to
land should inhibit any further development of this disturbance.
However, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I think that 90L is pretty much done. If it was anything, it was 24-48 hours ago. However, it looks like this week will be interesting. An Andrea (2013) redo?

Read more of my thoughts: http://goo.gl/RLx3Xg


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[cycloneye]

IMO,they will take a look at 90L after the season is over to see if it meets the requirements of data for an upgrade to a TD or TS.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.