ATL: INVEST 90L

[Meow]

This is the first disturbance in the North Atlantic in 2014, which is currently very close to Boris.

90L.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.18.9N.94.4W

90L INVEST 140604 0600 18.9N 94.4W ATL 20 1006
90L INVEST 140604 0000 18.9N 94.4W ATL 20 1006
90L INVEST 140603 1800 18.9N 94.4W ATL 20 1006
90L INVEST 140603 1200 18.8N 94.4W ATL 20 1006

[NDG]

Zoomed in area of 90L, very close to the coast.

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about 90L:

Atlantic's first "Invest" of 2014 forms in Gulf of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center's first area of interest in the Atlantic for 2014 was designated on Wednesday morning in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Invest 90L is nearly stationary, but satellite loops show that 90L is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms along the Mexican coast. Wind shear as diagnosed by the 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model was high, 20 - 25 knots, and wind shear is expected to stay high over the Bay of Campeche through Saturday. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to drop, and 90L may have a better chance to develop then. Boris' remnants will be working their way northwards and arrive in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, and the extra spin and moisture from Boris have the potential to aid development of 90L. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 20%. I put these odds at 20% and 30%, respectively, given the propensity of the Bay of Campeche to spin up tropical cyclones in recent years.

[OuterBanker]

With the upper level winds and marginal sst's maybe Enron would be a better "invest".

[Stormcenter]

With the upper level winds and marginal sst's maybe Enron would be a better "invest".

[davidiowx]

With the upper level winds and marginal sst's maybe Enron would be a better "invest".

Gave me a nice chuckle

[StormingB81]

One brings it to Texas....one Brings it to Florida......please let us not have a Debby fight again...Remember Debby 2012..The question where is it going to go for days....the models couldn't agree

[northjaxpro]

One brings it to Texas....one Brings it to Florida......please let us not have a Debby fight again...Remember Debby 2012..The question where is it going to go for days....the models couldn't agree

Oh, yeah, we all can never forget Debby I can assure you. Debby decided to come my way and drench us with 14 inches of rain back in June 2012.

As for 90L, I am just going to take a wait and see position. If we get development, there is also the possibility that 90L could stay in the vicinity of the BOC for a couple of days or so as well. Lots of uncertainty with this system, so we just have to watch as always.

[TheProfessor]

One brings it to Texas....one Brings it to Florida......please let us not have a Debby fight again...Remember Debby 2012..The question where is it going to go for days....the models couldn't agree

Yeah, I was at a weather camp at Jackson state college, and they would of had to release us after 2 days if Debby had hit Mississippi like some of the models were predicting. But, yeah, if the storm does develop, we could be looking at another Debby situation here. And if I remember correctly the same happened with Isaac, During the same year, the models were split between Tampa and an Alabama land fall, and it ended up hitting Louisiana instead. Go figure.

[cycloneye]

Small change in the movement part and 20% in 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A complex low pressure area centered over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a
large portion of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern
Mexico. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant
development of this system during the next couple of days before it
moves inland over eastern Mexico by Saturday. However, this
disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains and
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides during the next few days
over portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[wxman57]

12Z Euro moves a very weak (barely discernible) low into Mexico in 36 hrs. GFS dissipates it in place within 120 hrs but develops another weak low over the NE Yucatan in 7-8 days. Not much model support for development. However, whenever we get thunderstorms over the BoC or NW Caribbean/southern Gulf this time of year there is at least some chance of development. I'm still thinking a 40%-50% chance of a TD or weak/sheared TS in the next 5-10 days.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2014060418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 944W, 20, 1006, DB

[NDG]

I am noticing a tight little circulation on the HD vis satellite loop, not sure if it is all the way down to the surface or if it is just a dying eddie. Time will tell I guess.

[SouthDadeFish]

This disturbance has a window for development if it can remain in the BoC long enough. Waters are warm enough to support TC formation and the atmosphere is very moist as evidenced by this sounding:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/bimages/2014060412.76692.skewt.parc.gif

If 90L does develop a decent surface circulation center, it would have a great outflow jet with the position of the subtropical jet to its north. I would put the long-term odds of development closer to 30-40% rather than the 20% currently shown by the NHC, but that's just me.

[MGC]

Yep, sure does look like some spin down in the BOC......MGC

[Nimbus]

The upper level winds from the jetstream north of Texas don't appear to be dropping south yet. The model disparity is probably due to time of development, so that should clear up if this develops soon.

Interesting eddy but its getting some sheared at the moment.

[Evil Jeremy]

90L is looking better this evening than this morning. Defiantly healthy rotation, and I also see the distinct eddy. I'm also impressed by the outflow this system is getting. I think the NHC will bump both percentages up to 30% tonight.

Looking at the CIMSS Vorticity charts, the energy from Boris seems to have made it's way into the BoC over the past 9 hours:

18z: http://imageshack.com/a/img835/6246/4r7v.gif
15z: http://imageshack.com/a/img842/9949/sk82.gif
12z: http://imageshack.com/a/img839/7886/isj.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

That eddy is starting to look like it's more than just an eddy to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[USTropics]

Last 10 visible frames animated:

[ronjon]

I see the rather broad CC circulation. Whatever happens down there, its not going anywhere anytime soon. Look for it to meander the next 2-3 days.