ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models

[Senobia]

So is it set in stone for this to go into Mexico? Everyone is acting like it is.

I think it will be set in stone that's it's going into _______________ when it goes ashore into _______________.

[SeGaBob]

That's more of what I was thinking...

[Evil Jeremy]

Nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, but 90L does have a hefty ridge to the north. Not much wiggle room right now.

[Stormcenter]

Unless it sits there, then things may change with the ridge sometime next week. IMO

Nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, but 90L does have a hefty ridge to the north. Not much wiggle room right now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Unless it sits there, then things may change with the ridge sometime next week. IMO

Nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, but 90L does have a hefty ridge to the north. Not much wiggle room right now.

Hence "right now". 5 days and more out though, anything can happen. I guess I should have clarified I was doscussing the short term. Anything can happen next week, assuming this system is still around then.

[northjaxpro]

Don't forget, the earlier preliminary model runs at the beginning of this week did have this system stall out for several days in the Bay of Campeche.

[USTropics]

00z GFS models suggesting 90L will take advantage of a short window of decreasing wind shear with a closed off low in 18 hours before hostile winds take over and cause weakening.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Miami NWS discussion:

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN THEIR EVOLVING PATTERNS, THE GFS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. THIS
BEING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEPICT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
HAPPENS, THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS HAS THE WEAK LOW MOVING TOWARDS
US. AS STATED EARLIER, THE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE THIS FAR AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THIS WHICH COULD ALSO
MEAN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DEPICTED IN THE EXTENDED MAY BE TOO
HIGH. AT ANY RATE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
GETTING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL JUNE LIKE RAINY PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF buries the vorticity associated with 90L in to Mexico in roughly 24 hours (compared to the GFS which has it hanging around for 72-80 hours).

[USTropics]

Comparing the 850mb vorticity and the 500mb vorticity, looks like the GFS wants to decouple 90L in roughly 48 hours, with the 850mb vorticity sticking around in the BOC for 3-4 days and the 500mb vorticity racing off towards the NE Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the projected upper-level wind flow early next week. Sitting down there for a while isn't going to increase its chances of moving north toward Texas. The jet starts digging southward off the TX coast this weekend.

[blp]

I don't know what the GFS keeps seeing with the development coming from the NW Carribean. It is almost as if after 144hrs it is a broken record.