ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models

[tropicwatch]

I don't see anything that would move it in any direction anytime soon.

[SouthDadeFish]

Gotcha ronjon, just want to make sure everyone knows this is a complex situation in which the models will probably flip flop a lot over the coming days.

[blp]

The Navgem has joined the party. Now we are really cooking. Lol!!!

[NDG]

Another look at the 12z Euro. I am not buying it at this time because it is on its long range and it has been inconsistent about development in the BOC.

[stormlover2013]

yeah and that isn't tell next week, yall go post what Joe bastardi said on twitter, my work computer won't let me do it...so maybe somebody can post the 3 tweets he posted.

[stormlover2013]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h
We are expecting an early season development threat, just want to emphasize that trusting GFS with its storm a run not way to go

Euro big rains in Texas and now has gulf system but not heading for s Fla.. more likely path up through central gulf.




ok I figured it out, that was from big joe

[Evil Jeremy]

Joe Bastardi has no idea what's going to happen. I don't think anyone can or should make a prediction for a system that wont likely affect any part of the USA for at least 5 days. This is going to be a drawn out system, if it even develops.

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Plots. Even though they are useless right now.

[northjaxpro]

Well, apparently EURO is now beginning to pick up on the trend of moving 90L north and east. For the first time, we are seeing the two major models (GFS & EURO) come into some agreement. Time will tell if these trends will continue. This is still a good ways out and much can still change of course.

[SeGaBob]

What models have to shift away from Mexico for NHC to drop the words about it moving inland by Saturday?

[ronjon]

I think what JB and others are probably saying is given the European models shift east today, the fairly persistent GFS rightward bias, and just plain ole climatology, the best guess at a landfall location is the central gulf coast. Take it for what it is - a prediction 7 days out from a system that hasn't even formed yet.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Plots. Not much has changed with them still plowing this into Mexico, IMO it's way too early to tell.

[SeGaBob]

Where's the GFS and the Euro? Or are they not supposed to be part of this map?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Excerpt from Miami NWS:

THE GFS STILL MAINTAINS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE PUSHING NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES KEEPING THIS
LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A RESULT...PLACED MUCH MORE
WEIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[johngaltfla]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Uh, what drought? We're 5"+ for the year in my location.....everyone I know has a surplus and we had zip, zero, nada of a fire season for once (thankfully).

[tolakram]

Everyone, please stick to the topic of 90L and the 90L model runs and avoid personal opinions about the overall performance of a model.

Thanks.

[fci]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Uh, what drought? We're 5"+ for the year in my location.....everyone I know has a surplus and we had zip, zero, nada of a fire season for once (thankfully).

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/838/g1l6.png/

The attached shows South Florida in a short term drought.

[Hurricaneman]

What I see from the last several runs of the GFS is that the trough over the Bahamas and Hispaniola seem to get an energy transfer from 90L as 90L goes into Mexico and become a system in and of itself. Its one of the more tough forecast that has potential to bust real bad

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Uh, what drought? We're 5"+ for the year in my location.....everyone I know has a surplus and we had zip, zero, nada of a fire season for once (thankfully).

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/838/g1l6.png/

The attached shows South Florida in a short term drought.

Still would of been nice to get some rain out of this system.

[SeGaBob]

So is it set in stone for this to go into Mexico? Everyone is acting like it is.