ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models

[cycloneye]

Post all model runs here.

[NDG]

SHIPS does not do much with it because it sends it onshore in 36 hrs, must be going by the worthless BAM models.

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL902014  06/04/14  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    20    21    21    19    19    17    18    18    21    26    29
V (KT) LAND       20    20    20    21    21    19    20    24    26    26    27    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    19    19    18    18    24    26    26    27    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        20    21    28    25    23    23    24    25    21    17    11     7     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     1     0     0     0     0    -1     0     1     3     5     6    10
SHEAR DIR        248   245   250   268   276   285   303   294   306   301   314   280   307
SST (C)         27.2  27.1  27.1  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.2  27.8  28.4  28.8  29.3  29.8  30.0
POT. INT. (KT)   122   122   122   121   121   121   125   132   141   147   155   164   168
ADJ. POT. INT.   108   109   108   107   107   108   112   119   127   133   141   150   155
200 MB T (C)   -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C)       6     8    10     8     8    10     9    12    10    14    11    13    10
700-500 MB RH     80    79    78    76    74    71    69    63    60    54    52    51    49
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     7     8     9     9     8     8     7     7     6     6     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    19    14    15     3     4    16    33    39    42    42    54    48    29
200 MB DIV        39    36    37    28    10    24    10    -5     0   -10    -5   -19   -16
700-850 TADV       2     1     0    -1    -1    -1    -1     1    -1    -1    -1     0     2
LAND (KM)         61    76   101   108   104    52   -37  -149  -255  -275  -233  -132   -21
LAT (DEG N)     18.9  19.2  19.5  19.7  19.8  20.0  20.0  20.1  20.1  20.2  20.1  19.9  19.5
LONG(DEG W)     94.4  94.6  94.7  95.0  95.3  96.0  97.0  98.3  99.5 100.8 102.1 103.4 104.8
STM SPEED (KT)     2     3     3     3     3     4     6     6     6     6     6     6     7
HEAT CONTENT       7     6     8     7     8    10    11     0     0  9999  9999  9999  9999


[wxman57]

Good model plot on Levi Cowen's page:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90L_tracks_latest.png

[adam0983]

According the latest model guidance it looks like the EURO was right on Invest 90L. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[CFLHurricane]

Boo! Don't go to Mexico, come to Florida instead.

We have theme parks

[Evil Jeremy]

Any and all model runs this far out are worthless. Without anything even remotely organized at the moment, there's nothing for the models to latch onto and extrapolate from.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a weak low for a few days in BOC then moves NE as a sheared system sending plenty of rain to South Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS has a weak low for a few days in BOC then moves NE as a sheared system sending plenty of rain to South Florida.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/29vi9u9.jpg

It's been showing that solution for almost a few days now.

[adam0983]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[floridasun78]

nhc have it moving into mexico by sat

[HurricaneBelle]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

What drought? Most of the state has had well-above average rainfall lately (ask Pensacola, for instance), and only a small portion of South Florida is "abnormally dry" according to drought-monitoring sites.

[TheStormExpert]

I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.

What drought? Most of the state has had well-above average rainfall lately (ask Pensacola, for instance), and only a small portion of South Florida is "abnormally dry" according to drought-monitoring sites.

SE FL is where it has been an abnormally dry start to the rainy season!

[cycloneye]

Marine discussion.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014


..GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH...WITH
LOCALLY STRONG...WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE
SW GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK THEN DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND...THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW. THE LATEST UKMET RUNS
ARE STARTING TO SHOW A STRONGER LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF IS KEEPING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW OVER THE SW GULF. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.

[StormTracker]

Agreed! Also, take a look at my "Lake-O" thread. We're about to be put on water restrictions!

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=102720&p=2383674#p2383674

[cycloneye]

Big change on track by 12z ECMWF. Now it has weak low just off Louisiana coast.

[ronjon]

12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.

[SouthDadeFish]

12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.

I think you may be forgetting the time frame of these "landfalls." One should not expect anything too close 180+ hours out. The models will have a difficult time with this disturbance to its proximity with land, interactions with Boris, and the large nature of the disturbance.

[ronjon]

12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.

I think you may be forgetting the time frame of these "landfalls." One should not expect anything too close 180+ hours out. The models will have a difficult time with this disturbance to its proximity with land, interactions with Boris, and the large nature of the disturbance.

yeah I understand SDF - was having a little fun. Latest 12z NOGAPs shows low pressure forming in the SW GOm and moving toward La at 180 hrs.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2014060412&set=Tropical

[blp]

For entertainment purposes here is the higher resolution Euro at 240hr. I think the take away is that things appear to be shifting east a little today.

[stormlover2013]

blp ur image didn't show up