EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Just to repost (from page 1), this is what the HWRF was calling for back on June 7, valid at 06z this morning.

Yeah. Has the HWRF become reliable?

It's certainly doing the best this season. It showed Amanda becoming a Category 4 several days before it actually did, when no other model did. It was never excited about Boris, showing a 40kt peak. It caught onto Cristina becoming a hurricane several days before it even formed (just before the ECMWF caught on, and while the GFS showed nothing), and then was the first to ultimately forecast it becoming a major hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.

So true. Wilma for example if I recall was forecasted to be a Category 3, but rapidly intensify to Category 5.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has weakened during the last several hours. The eye has
lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images. In
addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to
mid-level dry air and some westerly shear. Dvorak intensity numbers
from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is
lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates. Cristina is expected to
continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment,
including progressively colder waters during the next several days.
The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account
for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the
intensity model consensus IVCN.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. After that time, the weakening and shallower
system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[TheStormExpert]

Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.

So true. Wilma for example if I recall was forecasted to be a Category 3, but rapidly intensify to Category 5.

Still they were only forecasting to peak as a Cat.1 for the first day and a half of issuing advisories for Cristina.

[Yellow Evan]

Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.

So true. Wilma for example if I recall was forecasted to be a Category 3, but rapidly intensify to Category 5.

They weren't THAT far off with Wilma.

If you wanna see an NHC screw up, look at Kenna 02.

[TheStormExpert]

Also looks like the strong westerly shear is already starting to affect the far northern rain bands of Cristina when looking at the current satellite. Better enjoy her looks like they still are there because it's going rapidly downhill from here for Cristina!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cristina is weakening very rapidly. The eye is no longer visible on infrared imagery, and a 0057z SSMIS microwave pass showed a partial eyewall with some tilt to the circulation. The final T# from UW-CIMSS ADT is down to T5.2/94.8kt. The storm has likely lost major hurricane status and is well on its way to losing hurricane intensity later today.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with around 90 knots personally.

[Yellow Evan]

Precipitation map from 15z the 11 to 15z the 12th.

[beoumont]

Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.

So true. Wilma for example if I recall was forecasted to be a Category 3, but rapidly intensify to Category 5.

They weren't THAT far off with Wilma.

If you wanna see an NHC screw up, look at Kenna 02.

Below is forecast from NHC discussion 30 hours before Wilma had advisory (19/0900z) winds of 175 mph sustained with a pressure from recon. of 884 mb.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT

[Meow]

Below is forecast from NHC discussion 30 hours before Wilma had advisory (19/0900z) winds of 175 mph sustained with a pressure from recon. of 884 mb.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT

This kind of issues is also not uncommon in the northwest Pacific. Taking Haiyan as an example, JTWC initially forecasted it approaching the central Philippines with winds at 120 knots. This eventually became 170 knots.

120kt is already very strong for the first warning, but nobody has ever prepared to face a 170-knot storm. The study of forecasting intensity will still decide many people’s life in the future. Anyway it is lucky that many hurricanes in the northeast Pacific do not make landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Just to repost (from page 1), this is what the HWRF was calling for back on June 7, valid at 06z this morning.

Yeah. Has the HWRF become reliable?

It's certainly doing the best this season. It showed Amanda becoming a Category 4 several days before it actually did, when no other model did. It was never excited about Boris, showing a 40kt peak. It caught onto Cristina becoming a hurricane several days before it even formed (just before the ECMWF caught on, and while the GFS showed nothing), and then was the first to ultimately forecast it becoming a major hurricane.

Great to know. The more reliable models... the better and easier it is for everyone.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130838
TCDEP3

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday,
Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate. Microwave
imagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and
only occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional
satellite data. The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a
blend of the Dvorak estimates. However this value is more uncertain
than normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite
intensity estimates from various agencies.

Decreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft,
should generally continue to weaken Cristina. Most of the models do
suggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been
observed, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't
extremely hostile. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the
previous one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial
wind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus. Transition
into a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is
surrounded by very dry air and over cool waters.

The cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt. A
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakened storm should
turn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The only
notable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina
continues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before
taking the westward turn. The NHC track forecast is adjusted
slightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the
latest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

Cristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall
replacement. A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by
an elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images,
has expanded to 25-30 n mi wide. The satellite intensity estimates
are still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and
Current Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.

Cristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient,
and the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves
over water colder than 26C. In addition, upper-level winds are
likely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach
of a sharp upper-level trough from the west. Therefore, it
is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall
replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the
entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of
the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the
first 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours.

A mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to
steer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt. This motion should
continue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane
or strong tropical storm. The weakening system is then expected to
turn west-northwestward by 36 hours. The track guidance once again
shifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new
NHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[mrbagyo]

Hurricane Cristina


SSEC Real Earth is one heck of a tool

[euro6208]

Pretty Amazing Super Typhoon/Category 4 Hurricane!

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

Cycloneye do you have the link for weather observation on Socorro Island? I remember you posted one a while ago ago but I lost it

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye do you have the link for weather observation on Socorro Island? I remember you posted one a while ago ago but I lost it

Found Socorro. Good site that has temperature,wind direction,speed of winds and pressure.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/CO02_10M.TXT

[supercane4867]

Thanks!

AAAA-MM-DD-HH:MM Dirs Mgts Dirmx Mgtmx Temp Hr Slp Pcp
2014-06-13-18:45 9.0 18.6 13.0 31.3 25.9 86.0 1001.7 0.2

Numbers are not impressive at the moment but we should get some good data as Cristina nearing the Island at Hurricane strength