NIO: NANAUK - Cyclonic Storm

[Meow]

IMD analyses T3.0, giving 45 knots and 990 hPa.

They also provide a funny animation:

[mrbagyo]

[Meow]

Central cold cover?



Nanauk has remained 45kt (55kt from JTWC) for long time.

[Alyono]

looks like more of an embedded center pattern to me

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is a very bizarre looking cyclone in terms of structure and convection. Quite disorganized mow, nut the cyclone is accompanied by very strong convection.

[Meow]

This is a very bizarre looking cyclone in terms of structure and convection. Quite disorganized mow, nut the cyclone is accompanied by very strong convection.

Actually, it is trying to form an eye.

[HurricaneBill]

Regardless of intensity, the big threat for Oman will be heavy rain.

[stormcruisin]

Looks to have the appearance of a decoupled LLCC.

[Meow]

There is no hope for this naked Nanauk.





02A NANAUK 140613 0600 21.3N 64.3E IO 35 996

[Meow]

JTWC issued the final warning.



WTIO31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.2N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW - GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS - PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
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