WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Meow]

Another 10-knot invest east of Taiwan.

[hurricanes1234]

10 knots is the speed of the wind when I go outside. Invest 92W which is no longer there, was 10 knots as well.

[dexterlabio]

I believe invests 92W and 93W are all part of a trough/low pressure system tracking towards the northeast. But according to the previous GFS models, a few tropical systems will form out of this. Reasonable, since the SST's in South China Sea is very warm, actually a bit warmer than the waters in the easternmost region of WPAC right now.

[Meow]

I believe invests 92W and 93W are all part of a trough/low pressure system tracking towards the northeast. But according to the previous GFS models, a few tropical systems will form out of this. Reasonable, since the SST's in the South China Sea is very warm, actually a bit warmer than most of the water in far WPAC right now.

93W is fed by moist from the South China Sea. That is the GFS forecasting system.

[euro6208]

LOW chance!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N 122.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071450Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER 071320Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED A 05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20
KNOT) WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF
25N AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

JMA thought 93W is just the east part of a stationary front.

[Meow]

At 12Z, JMA analysed 93W as an extratropical cyclone.



LOW 1002 HPA AT 25N 124E ENE 15 KT.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.1N
123.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well, there should be Invest 94W down SW of where 93W was, and which the former [94W] has a good chance of development, as the models are showing a mid-to-strong tropical storm from it.

[Meow]

Well, there should be Invest 94W down SW of where 93W was, and which the former [94W] has a good chance of development, as the models are showing a mid-to-strong tropical storm from it.

What you said is another system which will form within a few days. The current two vortices are consolidating, and they may become one tomorrow.

[richard-K2013]

JMA marked a TD in the south of Taiwan but I'm not sure if there is any relationship between the TD and the 93W.

[Meow]

NRL and FNMOC have removed 93W.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Then we should have 94W. The JMA has a better and more spot-on location for the system. I don't see a circulation N of Taipei, but the actual rotation is far SSW of Kaohsiung or closer to WNW of Batanes.