WPAC: MITAG - Tropical Storm

[richard-K2013]

JTWC upgrade its wind speed to 35 kts but still an invest. Is it a subtropical storm?
94W INVEST 140611 0000 24.4N 126.8E WPAC 35 996

[Meow]

JTWC upgrade it's wind speed to 35 kts but still an invest. But why? Is it a subtropical storm?
94W INVEST 140611 0000 24.4N 126.8E WPAC 35 996

They think so.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, OBLONG AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110138Z METOP-B IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH IS
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. A
110138Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION. DETAILED ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH
LEVELS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE
BAIU BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS
IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BAIU
(BAROCLINIC) BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[richard-K2013]

TS 1406 (MITAG)
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 11 June 2014

<Analyses at 11/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°00'(24.0°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement E 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM

[Meow]

Tropical Storm Mitag
A tropical storm analysed as a subtropical cyclone by JTWC.



TS 1406 (MITAG)
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 11 June 2014

<Analyses at 11/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°00'(24.0°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement E 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N27°50'(27.8°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 60km/h(32kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N30°30'(30.5°)
E139°30'(139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)

[richard-K2013]

In this Radar animation we can see Mitag is moving very fast.
The tropical storm will imapact Daito Islands in a short time, and the weather station in Minamidaito Village reported that the maximum wind speed is 16 m/s with gusting wind 25.9 m/s at 19:14 JST.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140611 0600 24.8N 128.1E WPAC 35 996

Surprised to see that winds are equivalent to a tropical storm! However, this system is no longer tropical.

20140611 0232 23.5 -126.6 Subtropical 94W 94W
20140610 2032 23.1 -125.0 T1.5/1.5 94W 94W
20140610 1432 22.7 -123.8 T1.5/1.5 94W 94W
20140610 0832 22.3 -123.0 T1.0/1.0 94W 94W

We will see what happens when the 12Z best track comes out...

THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE
BAIU BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS
IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BAIU
(BAROCLINIC) BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

[euro6208]

Classic Subtropical storm...

[Meow]

94W INVEST 140611 0600 24.8N 128.1E WPAC 35 996

Surprised to see that winds are equivalent to a tropical storm! However, this system is no longer tropical.

CMA, CWB, HKO, JMA, KMA and PAGASA think it is tropical. Despite PAGASA, the first five agencies use the name ‘Mitag’.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140611 0600 24.8N 128.1E WPAC 35 996

Surprised to see that winds are equivalent to a tropical storm! However, this system is no longer tropical.

CMA, CWB, HKO, JMA, KMA and PAGASA think it is tropical. Despite PAGASA, the first five agencies use the name ‘Mitag’.

Well this is a subtropical storm and i don't think any of them uses that term and mitag isn't recognized yet on many noaa/nws websites. Can any pro-met give us an insight on this if tropical or subtropical?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, OBLONG AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110138Z METOP-B IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH IS
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. A
110138Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION. DETAILED ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH
LEVELS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE
BAIU BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS
IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BAIU
(BAROCLINIC) BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Meow]

Although JMA analysed only CI1.5 at 12Z, Mitag still intensified.



TS 1406 (MITAG)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 11 June 2014

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°35'(25.6°)
E130°05'(130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N29°00'(29.0°)
E135°55'(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N32°00'(32.0°)
E141°35'(141.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)

[euro6208]

Subtropical storms have central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. 1C and 2C in the low-mid levels...



Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center. Strongest convection and winds on one side of the low.

It is located in a very high shear environment, 30 knots, something that a tropical system wouldn't survive in but subtropical storms can strengthen in this kind of environment due to baroclinic forces or something else...

There goes your answer, it's an unnamed subtropical storm...

[euro6208]

This subtropical system is now fully embedded in the front and may strengthen a bit more due to baroclinic forces. This will be a very strong storm for japan...Subtropical storms aren't your normal entity. They can strengthen with high shear and low ssts as documented well in the atlantic...

Well if GFS is right, this along with other possible subtropical/fronts and maybe tropical systems may continue developing one after another impacting Southeast/east asia with nasty weather...

[euro6208]

94W INVEST
40
40 0.5275

Ace: 0.5275 bringing season total to 12.07

I think this system will be included in the 2014 numbers as maue is counting this but unnamed...


http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[tolakram]

Keep this thread about MITAG and stop the conversation over agencies and countries. The thread is titled MITAG so references should be about MITAG unless we change it. This is not a place to argue over who is right and wrong and posts on that topic will be removed without notice and may result in your accounts being suspended.

I would hope, as adults, we can recognize that there are various opinions and methods when dealing with international agencies and as weather enthusiasts we can keep the conversation ABOUT THE WEATHER and agree to disagree, without comment, when it comes to naming conventions and the like.

[Meow]

The best results observed in Minamidaito (南大東)

Sustained winds: 19.4m/s
Gusts: 28.6m/s
Pressure: 993.9hPa

JMA’s intensity fits them very well.

[Meow]

JMA ends it, but JTWC has not.



LOW
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 12 June 2014

<Analyses at 12/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N30°00'(30.0°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 994hPa

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140612 0000 28.0N 136.6E WPAC 45 989

Remains a vigorous system! this is one deep system...


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N
122.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT IN A 111956Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. AN OLDER 110138Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
THE BAIU BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
BAIU (BAROCLINIC) BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. BASED ON DETAILED ANALYSIS, THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED
AS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40
TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

Subtropical storm still adding valuable ACE now up to 0.9325!

94W INVEST 45 45 0.9325


http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[euro6208]

I wouldn't be surprised if gale force winds as high as 50 knots could be occuring in that band as CIRA is showing 51 knots...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.4N
132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND STRECHTED UNDER THE EFFECTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC BAIU FRONT. THIS AREA IS BEING
MAINTAINED ON THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE THE 120021Z AMSU PASS INDICATES
A BROAD SWATH OF 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.