WPAC: INVEST 97W

[jaguarjace]

97W INVEST 140619 0000 6.5N 138.0E WPAC 15 1010


97W Floater

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 141.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC. A 190412Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH ILL-DEFINED BANDING
ELSEWHERE. A 190036Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10
TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 15N 130E.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED JUST EAST OF KOROR...AND OVER
YAP. SHORT-TERM FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE...REDUCING SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED TONIGHT AT KOROR AND INCREASING TO SCATTERED AT YAP. MODELS
SHOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITHIN A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
141.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.