EPAC: Invest 95E

[Hurricane_Luis]

Newly added invest in the East Pacific Ocean.

95E INVEST 140620 1800 10.7N 109.2W EPAC 20 1008

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, upper-level winds are expected to
become less favorable for development during the next couple of days
while the system begins to move northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Wind shear will probably spoil it, according to the TWO. With that being said, I do not expect much from this outside possibly a tropical storm. Wind shear has always been a spoiler for tropical cyclones, regardless of whether everything else is favourable or not.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks nice, but it is too far west for June. It's still early summer so there tends to be a lot of shear this far out.

[hurricanes1234]

Actually, it might have a chance if it stays south. The TWO earlier today said that as it begins to move north, it would run into shear. It does look good, but if shear is going to be present, then it could damage chances of getting strong.

[hurricanes1234]

Here is the current wind shear. As stated by the NHC, it's in a sweet zone of only about 10 knots of shear right now. However, just to the north it increases to 20 knots and so does it to the south. Personally, I'd say this has about 24-36 hours to consolidate before that shear sets in.



Invest 95E is visible to the bottom right of the illustration.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 50%/50%! I didn't think it would move up that fast!

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and
become better organized in association with a nearly stationary
low pressure system located about 725 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Although upper-level winds are favorable,
proximity to dry air in the northwestern portion of the low could
inhibit significant development of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive on Sunday for tropical
cyclone formation to occur while the system moves northward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Cyclenall]

I see some nice spin on the left part of that convective mass. Could be a squeaker. I like southern systems so hopefully it doesn't follow the forecast and moves due westwards.

[hurricanes1234]

I see some nice spin on the left part of that convective mass. Could be a squeaker. I like southern systems so hopefully it doesn't follow the forecast and moves due westwards.

I agree, southern systems are nicer to track. If it moves due west, it might have a better chance at strengthening, but in that case it would still have that desert like air as well as the possibility of unexpected, magical shear to deal with.

[stormcruisin]

This invest should have no problem with shear. Also appears to have deep convention with good banding starting to take place around the LLCC.
Also note the excellent outflow that's apparent on the 2nd sat pic this invest has ideal upper level conditions.





2)
95E INVEST 140621 0000 10.4N 110.2W EPAC 25 1007

[Yellow Evan]

I get that Juliette/Kiko 13 kind of feel with this system. One that surprisingly develops into a weak TS.

Also, this system has till the 22nd to form for it to set the earliest 4th storm on record (Blas 92).

[hurricanes1234]

In its current spot, conditions are ideal. However, due to its anticipated northward movement, where shear is strong and air is dry, little development is expected by the NHC beyond Sunday. That's very little time for it to become a storm, but if it develops quickly enough, it is not out of the question in my opinion. Also note that the GFS doesn't show much development from this outside a weak low.

[Steve820]

Dry air might inhibit the storm's ability to organize significantly. Personally, I predict a 40-45 mph tropical storm out of this thing before it runs into increasing shear. The name "Douglas" might have to be used for a weak storm this year, unless this invest peaks as a depression.

[stormcruisin]

397
AXPZ20 KNHC 210256
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 10.5N110W ALONG A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM 15N105W TO 07N113W. AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N106W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SURFACE LOW TO A CREST NEAR 11N111W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. CYCLONIC
15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED 240 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N TO NEAR 14N110W
LATE SAT AND NEAR 16N110W LATE SUN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

[hurricanes1234]

I doubt anything will form from this. Not to mention it has one day or less and it looks quite bad this morning. No banding features anywhere and no signs of organization like what we had last night. Let's allow the name 'Douglas' to go to a better system.

[hurricanes1234]

Remains the same as it was this morning. Still, though, I would amateurly estimate chances at 20% or less, seeing that time is almost up and there doesn't seem to be the slightest sign of increasing organisation.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a weak area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Although this system still has some potential
for development today or Sunday, upper-level winds are becoming
increasingly hostile for tropical cyclone formation while the
system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Landsea

[Yellow Evan]

Too little too late IMO.

[stormcruisin]

Still inclined to think there is a TS out there from this invest.

[hurricanes1234]

Down to 20%. Now even if I were inclined to think this could form still, it would probably be null and void because I cannot really find 95E on the latest frames!

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
a weak area of low pressure located about 550 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are becoming increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, and any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves northward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[stormcruisin]

Down to 20%. Now even if I were inclined to think this could form still, it would probably be null and void because I cannot really find 95E on the latest frames!

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
a weak area of low pressure located about 550 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are becoming increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, and any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves northward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html