EPAC: Invest 95E

Steve820 · #21 Postby **Steve820** » Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:59 pm

It looks like time is up for this invest. Oh well, it had its chance. Hopefully we'll see Douglas before the end of June.

#22 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 12:08 am

Yeah, it will probs be deactivated soon.

hurricanes1234 · #23 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 7:28 pm

Up to 30% (strange).

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure system located
about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. Although
thunderstorm activity has been increasing near the center during the
past few hours, environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development to occur during the next day or
so while the disturbance moves northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

stormcruisin · #24 Postby **stormcruisin** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 8:43 pm

Its atleast 1.5 and maybe close to 2

Never looked like a deactivation it had broad rotation with healthy tots on the sat-pic and clearly it was and still is drawing the moisture from the wave to the south. :wink:

95E INVEST 140623 0000 17.5N 108.0W EPAC 30 1007

#25 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:16 pm

Maybe one last shot to form? It was 10% earlier.

stormcruisin · #26 Postby **stormcruisin** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 1:26 am

95E INVEST 140623 0600 18.3N 108.3W EPAC 30 1006

stormcruisin · #27 Postby **stormcruisin** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:26 am

removed image

Ascat suggesting 35 knots at core.

Hurricane_Luis · #28 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:57 am

stormcruisin wrote:http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/841/8k7i.png
Sat-pic looks a TD imo

http://imageshack.com/a/img843/8060/fabq.gif
Ascat suggesting 35 knots at core.

That Satellite image is from the 20th June. Here is a newer one.

stormcruisin · #29 Postby **stormcruisin** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:31 am

Yeah thanks Hurricane_Luis i selected the wrong image on the sat-pic still think is a TD anyway.

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:00 pm

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California penisula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

#31 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:13 pm

Clearly 95E looks better on infared satellite than what it actually is at the surface with the weak & broad surface low well removed from the mid level circulation, IMO.

#32 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:23 pm

Perhaps is not as disorganized as I thought it was.

hurricanes1234 · #33 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:23 pm

Does anyone think this will turn out to be a bust? I personally do, again because of limited time and conditions which are not all that good. But as of now, it doesn't look that bad, more like an organized blob.

#34 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:48 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Does anyone think this will turn out to be a bust? I personally do, again because of limited time and conditions which are not all that good. But as of now, it doesn't look that bad, more like an organized blob.

It's over warm SST's and isn't that far off from being classified IMO

#35 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:49 pm

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

hurricanes1234 · #36 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 23, 2014 10:03 pm

Down to 20% and looks quite bad right now with little notable convection. I think it's really time for this to bust now.

xtyphooncyclonex · #37 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:14 am

IMO I think, together with the others, this is a bust. There is just too much dry air and the disturbance is disorganized. Looks fair on visible imagery, but decapitated on microwave and on infrared.

#38 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:19 am

Gone from TWO.

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