ATL: ARTHUR - Models

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supercane4867
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ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#181 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:08 pm

12z ECMWF WMO-essential via Ryan Maue

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#182 Postby tallywx » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:22 pm

So all major models now showing a direct OBX hit. That's significant.
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SeGaBob

#183 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:27 pm

Why would the models shift west when there's no westerly component of movement anymore? Could it just be a later turn to the NE?
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Re:

#184 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:41 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Why would the models shift west when there's no westerly component of movement anymore? Could it just be a later turn to the NE?


Yep. It's all a question of when the NE curve happens and how much of a bend there is.
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Re:

#185 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:48 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Why would the models shift west when there's no westerly component of movement anymore? Could it just be a later turn to the NE?


We have a lot of visitors looking at storm2k for non public distributed guidance.
The earlier models were playing catch up with a low level center initializing further south and east than anticipated.
They have since had special missions sample the upper air to create a more accurate forecast.

The models could be seeing a delay in the fronts eastward progression.
Or maybe the high pressure ridging is evolving differently than expected.

Kind of important to North Carolina to get a clear forecast without a lot of speculation.
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SeGaBob

#186 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:52 pm

:uarrow: I wasn't speculating... I was asking a legitimate question. tolakrams answer was enough without you having to say all that. I'm well aware of the number of guests too.
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#187 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:12 pm

18Z Guidance:
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#188 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:29 pm

18z GFS Initialized

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18z GFS +24 (wait.... what?)

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#189 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:41 pm

18z GFS +36 (West of 12z)

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#190 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:47 pm

Looks like the west shift is continuing, if the euro continues as well in the early am I definitely think the NHC will begin showing an official landfall with their 5AM update.
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#191 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:50 pm

With that west trend even Myrtle Beach SC would be affected.
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#192 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:51 pm

Per Levi Cowan on twitter referencing CMC ensembles.

12z CMC ensembles are in. A lot of members take Arthur solidly over the outer banks. Very few offshore.


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Last edited by JtSmarts on Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#193 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:58 pm

Another Levi Cowan post concerning GFS

18z GFS had 20 dropsondes in it from G-IV aircraft. Once again nudged west with #Arthur. Well inland:


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#194 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:14 pm

one thing i have noticed about the west shift in models. im looking at the radar echos from the approaching front and they are beginning to align more south to north that west to east. could mean art will move a little more west.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#195 Postby beagleagle23 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:19 pm

Is it just me or does the GFS have Arthur much weaker than the other models?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#196 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:37 pm

beagleagle23 wrote:Is it just me or does the GFS have Arthur much weaker than the other models?


That's a resolution issue with that particular plot. At 30 hours the 18Z GFS high rez (paysite, Weatherbell) has Arthur at 989mb before hitting the North Carolina coast, then 984mb just after it comes off the coast.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#197 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:14 pm

18z HWRF Initialized

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18z HWRF +24

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#198 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:16 pm

18z HWRF +36

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18z HWRF +39

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18z HWRF +42

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#199 Postby ronjon » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:15 pm

Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#200 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:32 pm

ronjon wrote:Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.


Heck, even SE New England could too verbatim
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