ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[gatorcane]

I am looking at the 12Z 192 hour ECMWF that was run back last Sun the 22nd and in that run it shows a similar track to what we could end up seeing with Arthur though it didn't make it as strong until it got to just off North Carolina and it had it passing NE off North Carolina by now.

Throughout the week last week, it was showing runs where it was rather bullish on development of this system.

Have to say BIG win for the ECMWF latching onto this system and what the general synoptic setup would be well before the other global models including the GFS did.

[Jevo]

0z GFS Initialized



0z GFS +24



0z GFS +36

[Jevo]

0z GFS +48



0z GFS +54 Stopping by to get his OBX sticker

[Alyono]

Looks like the Canadian and GFS are a touch west

[WilmingtonSandbar]

HWRF 0z+48 looks like it is getting ready to make landfall on Bald Head Island or Southport, NC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 01L_17.png

[Aric Dunn]

not all the data from the gulf stream made it into the oz early run ... 06z might be even farther west

[Alyono]

ECMWF does not shift any closer to the coast. If anything, it went east

[stormcruisin]

660
FXUS10 KWNH 020637
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

VALID JUL 02/0000 UTC THRU JUL 05/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 02/03Z NHC ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET

THE 02/03Z NHC TRACK/TIMING FOR ARTHUR IS NOT ALIGNED WITH ANY
SINGLE MODEL RUN NOR IS IT CONSISTENTLY CLOSER TO ANY SINGLE MODEL
RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK AND TIMING OF
ARTHUR THROUGH THROUGH F036...12Z/03...WHILE REMAINING MODELS ARE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF NHC. AFTER 12Z/03...THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF ARE
CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK/TIMING. THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE NHC TRACK...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS CURRENTLY THE SLOWEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH F060...12Z/04 WHICH CAN BE RESOLVED WITH A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE. AFTER 12Z/04...ARTHUR SHOULD BECOME
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
DO NOT MATCH THE NHC TRACK FOR ARTHER CANNOT BE CONSIDERED.
THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET IS PREFERRED. JUST AS A
NOTE...THE UKMET SHOWS VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE WITH
THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
THROUGH FRI MORNING BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE SMALLER SCALE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ADVANCING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE OVERALL TROUGH
AXIS THAT IMPACTS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RACING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 12Z/05...SAT
MORNING.

THE GFS HAS NOT MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITSELF AND APPEARS
TO BE REMOVED FROM THE CONSENSUS CONSIDERING THE 00Z RUN.
HOWEVER...THE UKMET HAS HELD PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS PRIOR
RUNS AND MATCH THE MEANS RATHER WELL...SHOWING LESS AMPLIFICATION
OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY SAT MORNING COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS.
THE 00Z ECMWF NUDGED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS
STILL USABLE...WHEN BLENDED WITH THE 00Z UKMET.

[Jevo]

06z HWRF +48

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized



12z GFS +12

[Jevo]

12z GFS +24



12z GFS +36

[Jevo]

12z GFS +42



12z GFS +48

[Jevo]

12z GEM +42



12z GEM +48

[Jevo]

12z HWRF Initialized



12z HWRF +12

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +24



12z HWRF +36

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +39 (Initial landfall Beaufort)



12z HWRF +42 (in OBX)



12z HWRF +45 (Out to Sea)

[Jevo]

Euro is Running

12z Euro Initialized



12z Euro +24



12z Euro +48 (West of Previous Run)

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF brings 970mb center right over Cape hatteras at 48 hour, probable strong Cat.2 directly impact the coast

[JtSmarts]

12z ECMWF brings 970mb center right over Cape hatteras at 48 hour, probable strong Cat.2 directly impact the coast

Yep Bastardi called it a "nightmare path" from Cape Lookout to Hatteras, will be interesting to see if the NHC shifts west at 5.

[Alyono]

ECMWF has 80 KT winds over the Outer Banks, with cat 3 winds just offshore