EPAC: ELIDA - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Could up-welling be the source of weakening? or is it the shear.

It is the shear which was analyzed earlier at 25-30 knots from the outflow from the other TS.

Its LLC has gone almost naked:

[hurricanes1234]

I have two words for Elida right now: a mess!

[hurricanes1234]

Just barely a tropical storm on 18:00 Best Track. I wouldn't be too surprised if this drops to tropical depression status in the near future.

05E ELIDA 140701 1800 17.3N 104.0W EPAC 35 1005

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the
cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep
convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and
on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots.
These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and
east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will
continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a
trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such
models.

Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and
it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours.
The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during
the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that
period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days,
and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving
slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the
multi-model consensus trend.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the
coast during the next 12 to 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt it'll survive the shear.

[hurricanes1234]

I doubt it'll survive the shear.

Already becoming a swirl. I personally don't see this surviving much longer. Probably a depression by 3:00 tomorrow.

[hurricanes1234]

I'd be surprised if this makes it to Thursday as anything but a 30 mph depression or remnant low.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Elida remains a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of any deep
convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,
close to a blend of the latest T/CI numbers from TAFB. Strong
northwesterly shear over Elida should continue to weaken the
system. Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution,
and the new NHC intensity prediction is very close to the previous
one. The only significant change is to show remnant low status
within 24 hours. Given the lack of convection, however,
Elida could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast.

Elida is moving a little faster toward the southeast this evening -
roughly 135/3 - an unusual motion for an eastern Pacific cyclone
in July. The depression or its remnants will likely move
southward by late tomorrow, then westward by Thursday due to a
building low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Model guidance
has shifted southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is moved
in that direction. The small cyclone should degenerate into a
trough in 3-4 days, which is in line with the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Steve820]

Elida has weakened to a depression and is now a disorganized swirl. It should dissipate by tomorrow. Two words that sum up Elida: EPIC FAIL!

[supercane4867]

R.I.P Elida the failure

...ELIDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ...
2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 2
Location: 16.9°N 103.0°W
Moving: SE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph