EPAC: ELIDA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Looks classifiable to me.

http://i.imgur.com/8j1h7ZN.gif

Agree and direct to TS Elida right?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks classifiable to me.

http://i.imgur.com/8j1h7ZN.gif

Agree and direct to TS Elida right?

Yep. ASCAT sampled 45-50 mph winds and deep convection cooler than -80C has persisted just southeast of the low-level circulation for hours.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks classifiable to me.

http://i.imgur.com/8j1h7ZN.gif

Agree and direct to TS Elida right?

Yes, I would agree. If classified, it would jump right to a moderate tropical storm and be stronger than sad little (big) Douglas.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

We have Elida! Two storms are active now. But this one is a threat to land (see tropical storm warning), however, it is not expected to make landfall.

[hurricanes1234]

No intensification is anticipated by the NHC.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low
pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has
become better organized overnight. First-light visible imagery
shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the
northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong
northwesterly vertical wind shear. In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim
Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900
UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200
UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center.
Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial
intensity estimate is set at 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10. Elida should move
northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico,
in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending
southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion
of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone
reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift
shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast
period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the
coast at a faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to
the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day
5.

Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track
of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit
significant intensification during the next few days. After about
72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone
should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model
consensus IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[srainhoutx]

This TC will likely mark the beginning of monsoon season across the Desert SW which has been almost non existent that past several years. I would be careful of these early intensity forecasts as they have been proven wrong with cyclones closer to the Pacific Coast of Mexico this season. The area along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and inland has been extremely wet this season. Dangerous flash flooding and mud slides are a real concern.

[Yellow Evan]

This TC will likely mark the beginning of monsoon season across the Desert SW which has been almost non existent that past several years..

I beg to differ. Las Vegas had one of it's wettest monsoon seasons on record the past two years.

With that said, the north American Monsoon is very hard to predict.

[euro6208]

Twin tropical storms...None forecast to make landfall thankfully.

[Portastorm]

This TC will likely mark the beginning of monsoon season across the Desert SW which has been almost non existent that past several years..

I beg to differ. Las Vegas had one of it's wettest monsoon seasons on record the past two years.

With that said, the north American Monsoon is very hard to predict.

Not sure where you're getting your information Yellow Evan but the monsoon was essentially non-existent in 2013. The 2013 climate summary from Las Vegas from NWS speaks to how dry it was for the year and how no month except for November had over an inch of rainfall. In 2012, however, it was a different story with Las Vegas recording slightly above normal rainfall with the areas most conducive to monsoon rainfall seeing the highest anomalies.

[Yellow Evan]

This TC will likely mark the beginning of monsoon season across the Desert SW which has been almost non existent that past several years..

I beg to differ. Las Vegas had one of it's wettest monsoon seasons on record the past two years.

With that said, the north American Monsoon is very hard to predict.

Not sure where you're getting your information Yellow Evan but the monsoon was essentially non-existent in 2013. The 2013 climate summary from Las Vegas from NWS speaks to how dry it was for the year and how no month except for November had over an inch of rainfall. In 2012, however, it was a different story with Las Vegas recording slightly above normal rainfall with the areas most conducive to monsoon rainfall seeing the highest anomalies.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=vef

Nowdata suggest it rained roughly 20 times from mid August to mid September. That's impressive for the desert.

Regarding 2012, here is what http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/blog/15735 suggests

"Las Vegas, north of Arizona, fared better than points east of the state, at least compared to normal conditions. There, the monsoon season starts in July rather than June and on average produces a little over 1 inch of rain. But this year Las Vegas received about 3.63 inches! Of course, almost half of this rain fell in only one day in August."

Either way, I don't think Elida will affect the monsoon much as it is forecast to head west per the NHC.

[lilybeth]

This TC will likely mark the beginning of monsoon season across the Desert SW which has been almost non existent that past several years. I would be careful of these early intensity forecasts as they have been proven wrong with cyclones closer to the Pacific Coast of Mexico this season. The area along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and inland has been extremely wet this season. Dangerous flash flooding and mud slides are a real concern.

I find this interesting as the past two years have seemed quite tame for monsoons here in the PHX area, for sure. Esp. last year. I remember back in 05-09 when it seemed like there was lightning and a threat of storm almost every night, along with quite a few huge storms and rains thrown in the mix.

Either way, the EPAC is kicking up this week - it will be interesting to follow all of this and see the impact to weather patterns down here.

[Yellow Evan]

GFDL and HWRF aren't very aggressive with this.

[Yellow Evan]

Why hasn't an intermediate advisory been issued?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

GFS makes it stronger. Likely strong TS.

[hurricanes1234]

Still 45 knots on Best Track. I have doubts about this intensifying as of now. Only if something unexpected happens like wind shear abruptly abates, I will lean towards intensification.

05E ELIDA 140630 1800 17.3N 104.1W EPAC 45 1003

[Kingarabian]

Maybe Douglas will gobble/absorb Elida? Maybe vice versa? Who knows...

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe Douglas will gobble/absorb Elida? Maybe vice versa? Who knows...

Convection is decreasing over Elida now.