EPAC: ELIDA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Still 45 knots on Best Track. I have doubts about this intensifying as of now. Only if something unexpected happens like wind shear abruptly abates, I will lean towards intensification.

05E ELIDA 140630 1800 17.3N 104.1W EPAC 45 1003

You tend to be very pessimistic

Shear should decrease in a couple days.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe Douglas will gobble/absorb Elida? Maybe vice versa? Who knows...

Convection is decreasing over Elida now.

That's typical for the time of day. They tend to be highest in the early morning.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 302046
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern
associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection
displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to
moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the
rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at
1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a
well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern
quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at
45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The
aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down
considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models
have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed
would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has
followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears
to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge
located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida
could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of
Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is
forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce
a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The
official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory
track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected
to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should
prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the
very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment
surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some
strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then
follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricane_Luis]

Still 45 knots on Best Track. I have doubts about this intensifying as of now. Only if something unexpected happens like wind shear abruptly abates, I will lean towards intensification.

05E ELIDA 140630 1800 17.3N 104.1W EPAC 45 1003

You tend to be very pessimistic

Shear should decrease in a couple days.

Its stayed at 50 mph for the last 2 advisories. Unless I've missed something, the northerly shear is really thrashing it though.

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder, do you all think the movement of Douglas away from Elida as well as its future dissipation will help to ease some of the shear currently on Elida?

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 302350
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
500 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

...ELIDA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder, do you all think the movement of Douglas away from Elida as well as its future dissipation will help to ease some of the shear currently on Elida?

Possibly IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

Actually, convection seems to be increasing now. Look at the blob of grey in this image. In addition to this, is the convection getting closer to the center?



Also, according to UTC, Happy New Month!

This image is a GIF file and is not viewable on all devices.

[Yellow Evan]

Actually, convection seems to be increasing now. Look at the blob of grey in this image. In addition to this, is the convection getting closer to the center?



Also, according to UTC, Happy New Month!

This image is a GIF file and is not viewable on all devices.

Likely is getting closer to the center. I think it could go up to 50 knts. I would have started this at 50 knts based on ship reports actually.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF keeps it at 45 knts.

EP, 05, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1044W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 40, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, M,

[hurricanes1234]

ATCF keeps it at 45 knts.

EP, 05, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1044W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 40, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, M,

Not very surprising. It could just be looking more organised on satellite. ADT estimates are at 45 knots also.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 998.9mb/ 45.0kt

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little
during the past 6 to 12 hours. The center briefly became exposed to
the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to
moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Since that time, a new
burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed
near and over the the center. The intitial intensity remains 45
kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB
and the earlier ASCAT data.

Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably
today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt. The global
model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of
weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this
time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should
cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed. The updated
NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the
previous forecast during the first few days.

Little change in strength is expected during the next two to
three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to
strong northwesterly shear. After Elida begins moving westward
later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area
of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Looks really nice IMO. Mini-CDO has formed.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-zihuatanejo.html really only good webcam I can find. Doesn't appear to be much going on, but it is hard to tell due to time of day.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 010540
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

...ELIDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON TUESDAY...AND MEANDER OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold
cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This
structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly
shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal
for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from
the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level
trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a
weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the
official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a
little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is
close to the SHIPS model.

It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours,
with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The
track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow
southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast
period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should
induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC
forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally
close to the previous NHC track after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Both Elida and Douglas are weakened on the 12:00 Best Track. Elida is in bold:

04E DOUGLAS 140701 1200 18.9N 115.4W EPAC 35 1002
05E ELIDA 140701 1200 17.4N 104.3W EPAC 40 1004

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 011135
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...ELIDA MEANDERING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA
REMAINED LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST.
ELIDA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
SLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and
satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on
the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern
has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers
suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been
lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast
to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no
significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could
re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The
official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which
shows no important change in strength in 5 days.

Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely
moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast
by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and
little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast
to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force
Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent
with the multi-model consensus trend.

Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida
continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical
storm warning would likely be discontinued later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Hurricane_Luis]

Could up-welling be the source of weakening? or is it the shear.