ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near
hurricane strength. On one side, the central pressure has fallen to
988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from
the SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several
satellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the
flight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane
strength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below
hurricane strength. Given the conflicting data, the initial
intensity is held at 60 kt. Another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Arthur around 06Z.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Arthur is moving through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the
eastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone
should recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic
trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England.
While the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the
center of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward
toward the North Carolina coast. The GFS has made a rather
significant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the
center of Arthur across eastern North Carolina. The new forecast
track is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in
the center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS.

Coastal radar data shows that Arthur is having trouble maintaining a
closed eyewall, which is likely due to continued entrainment of dry
air. However, the storm should remain in an area of light vertical
wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36
hours or so. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for additional
strengthening during that time similar to the previous forecast.
After 48 hours, Arthur should merge with the baroclinic trough over
the Canadian Maritimes and become extratropical. The intensities
and wind radii during the extratropical phase have been modified
based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 30.6N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 31.7N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 33.5N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 39.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 45.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 51.0N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z 55.5N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE SOON. AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE INVESTIGATING ARTHUR THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[arlwx]

HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 79.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN
THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[arlwx]

From NHC...

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
of the period.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
Prediction Center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN
THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90
MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90
MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force
plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The
NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have
measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is
forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the
next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional
intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for
Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or
closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered
intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over
cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to
increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be
moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast
to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should
steadily weaken after that.

Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little
faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although
the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane
should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the
deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in
good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North
Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight
westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland
over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the
models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the
western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the
right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but
has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five.
The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over
portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days.

Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since
the associated hazards extend well away from the center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN
IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH.

THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...EYE OF ARTHUR NEARING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND
AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO POINT ACONI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
COAST IN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ALANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN
IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

The eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has
changed very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind
observations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively. These data support
maintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next
12 to 18 hours and Arthur is still forecast to reach category two
intensity as it nears the North Carolina coast. Vertical shear is
forecast to increase significantly by Friday night and weakening
should commence by that time. Arthur is expected to interact with
an approaching deep-layer trough and should become a post-tropical
cyclone within 48 hours. Steady weakening is anticipated after
Arthur becomes post-tropical.

Aircraft and radar fixes indicate that the initial motion is 020
degrees at 11 kt, a little faster than before. Arthur is expected
to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of a deep-layer trough
that will move into the eastern United States during the next day
or so. Although the models still remain in good agreement on the
track of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a
westward shift this cycle. The new NHC track has been shifted
westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36
hours. The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North
Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight. Beyond 36 hours, the
NHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not
as far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers.

While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be
immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest
winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks,
rather than remain offshore.

NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7
pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued
on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position
updates.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 33.4N 77.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 76.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 38.2N 72.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 41.9N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 45.2N 64.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z 50.4N 56.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1800Z 56.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...6 PM POSITION UPDATE...

A WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION IN KURE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED OF 48 MPH...77 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST
OF 57 MPH...92 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
700 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...EYEWALL OF ARTHUR JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
COAST IN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ALANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES
OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. A BUOY OPERATED BY THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
OCEAN RESEARCH AND MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...88 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...8 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR PASSING SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...
79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 77.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
900 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND APPROACH NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ARTHUR A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 65 MPH...105 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 81 MPH...130 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. A
BUOY OPERATED BY THE COASTAL OCEAN RESEARCH AND MONITORING PROGRAM
JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 978.3 MB...28.89 INCHES...FROM INSIDE
THE EYE.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 040156
TCUAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...10 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA SOON...

NOAA BUOY 41036 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 67
MPH...108 KM /H...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH...140 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040301
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...EYE OF ARTHUR ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 76.6W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE...ALL OF
NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL AREA OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AND BUOY DATA IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ONTO THE COAST NEAR
CAPE LOOKOUT...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND WARNING AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM EDT AND 300 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT21 KNHC 040301
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE...ALL OF
NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 76.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.

Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 34.6N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1130 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

...CENTER OF ARTHUR MAKES LANDFALL...

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1115 PM EDT...0315
UTC...OVER THE SHACKLEFORD BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND BEAUFORT
NORTH CAROLINA. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 77 MPH...124 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
101 MPH...163 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1130 PM EDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 76.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BLAKE

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING OVER SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 76.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
TO CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2
WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL AREA OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASS
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH...106 KM/H...AND A
WIND GUST OF 88 MPH...141 KM/H. CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ONTO THE COAST NEAR
CAPE LOOKOUT...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

[supercane4867]

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...2 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND...

A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 96
MPH...154 KM/H. A U.S. COAST GUARD STATION JUST WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...95
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 83 MPH...134 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN