TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.0W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE-Tropical Depression - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE -Tropical Depression - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission.
The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion
estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
the coast of the southeastern United States.
Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
extratropical by day 5.
Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission.
The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion
estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
the coast of the southeastern United States.
Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
extratropical by day 5.
Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Andrew92
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010540
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST
BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT31 KNHC 010540
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST
BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: ONE - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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ATL: ONE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The 5 am discussion from NHC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.
There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.
Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.
There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.
Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ONE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST
OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION
SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.
After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST
OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION
SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.
After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT
OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface
winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the
intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.
Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant
change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on
large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern
and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a
subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The
combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase
the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official
forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory
track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance
envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate
over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level
outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary
inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level
air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and
briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global
and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to
moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to
strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and
in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving
over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear
in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT
OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface
winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the
intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.
Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant
change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on
large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern
and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a
subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The
combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase
the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official
forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory
track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance
envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate
over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level
outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary
inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level
air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and
briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global
and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to
moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to
strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and
in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving
over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear
in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...CENTER OF ARTHUR MEANDERING EAST OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION
AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH... 98 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...CENTER OF ARTHUR MEANDERING EAST OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION
AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH... 98 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...ARTHUR DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE ARTHUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/2. The track guidance
models remain in good agreement on a large mid/upper-level trough
digging southeastward into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states
during the next 72 hours, while a subtropical ridge east of the
Carolinas gradually strengthens. The combination of these two
systems is expected steer Arthur generally northward for 24 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and gradual
acceleration. The combination of the lack of motion over the past
6-12 hours and the slightly more eastward initial position have
resulted in some eastward shift of the track guidance envelope. As
a result, the new forecast track is also shifted slightly to the
east from the previous forecast. The official forecast is near the
center of the track guidance envelope and remains close to the
various consensus models.
Arthur is expected to be in an environment of light northwesterly
vertical wind shear for the next 60-72 hours. This should allow for
continued development. However, satellite total precipitable water
data suggests that pockets of dry air remain near the cyclone, and
these could hinder development. Given these competing factors, the
new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous forecast
and calls for Arthur to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and
reach its peak intensity in about 72 hours. After that time, the
cyclone should undergo extratropical transition and weaken as it
merges with the mid/upper-level trough.
Based on the new forecast track, additional watches and warnings
are not necessary for the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts
at this time. However, tropical storm or hurricane watches will
likely be required for portions of these areas on Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 27.9N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 29.7N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 31.0N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 32.8N 77.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 47.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...ARTHUR DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE ARTHUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/2. The track guidance
models remain in good agreement on a large mid/upper-level trough
digging southeastward into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states
during the next 72 hours, while a subtropical ridge east of the
Carolinas gradually strengthens. The combination of these two
systems is expected steer Arthur generally northward for 24 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and gradual
acceleration. The combination of the lack of motion over the past
6-12 hours and the slightly more eastward initial position have
resulted in some eastward shift of the track guidance envelope. As
a result, the new forecast track is also shifted slightly to the
east from the previous forecast. The official forecast is near the
center of the track guidance envelope and remains close to the
various consensus models.
Arthur is expected to be in an environment of light northwesterly
vertical wind shear for the next 60-72 hours. This should allow for
continued development. However, satellite total precipitable water
data suggests that pockets of dry air remain near the cyclone, and
these could hinder development. Given these competing factors, the
new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous forecast
and calls for Arthur to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and
reach its peak intensity in about 72 hours. After that time, the
cyclone should undergo extratropical transition and weaken as it
merges with the mid/upper-level trough.
Based on the new forecast track, additional watches and warnings
are not necessary for the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts
at this time. However, tropical storm or hurricane watches will
likely be required for portions of these areas on Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 27.9N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 29.7N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 31.0N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 32.8N 77.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 47.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTHEAST OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Despite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur
has strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02
and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast
of the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to
the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the
central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of
these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.
Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being
entrained into the western half of the circulation, which
features only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band
is situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of
an eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was
reported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that
Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given
an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind
shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a
hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By
72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead
of an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in
weakening during the extratropical transition process. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN
through the period.
Arthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The
overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical
cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours
and then gradually accelerate northeastward between the
aforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The
track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours.
Given the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches
have been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North
Carolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTHEAST OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Despite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur
has strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02
and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast
of the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to
the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the
central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of
these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.
Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being
entrained into the western half of the circulation, which
features only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band
is situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of
an eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was
reported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that
Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given
an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind
shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a
hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By
72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead
of an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in
weakening during the extratropical transition process. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN
through the period.
Arthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The
overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical
cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours
and then gradually accelerate northeastward between the
aforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The
track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that
direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours.
Given the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches
have been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North
Carolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76
KM/H...AND A GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76
KM/H...AND A GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.
The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.
Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4756.shtml?
inundation#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.
The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.
Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4756.shtml?
inundation#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARTHUR IS EXPECETD TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again
sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is
gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized
with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the
above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60
knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the
vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant
intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment
of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for
Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global
models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone
significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves
near the North Carolina coast.
Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,
steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical
ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and
move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the
guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official
forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of
Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARTHUR IS EXPECETD TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again
sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is
gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized
with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the
above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60
knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the
vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant
intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment
of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for
Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global
models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone
significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves
near the North Carolina coast.
Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,
steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical
ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and
move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the
guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official
forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of
Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CORE
OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...
110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CORE
OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...
110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR HAS NOT YET BECOME A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR HAS NOT YET BECOME A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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