WPAC: INVEST 91W

[stormcruisin]

91WP INVEST.15kt




That was quick.

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140701 0600 13.0N 134.0E WPAC 15 1010

Bandings developing and convection increasing near and over LLC. Seems to be linked into a TUTT cell providing favorable outflow. Although no models develop this but we'll see...

[stormcruisin]

91W INVEST 140701 0600 13.0N 134.0E WPAC 15 1010

Bandings developing and convection increasing near and over LLC. Seems to be linked into a TUTT cell providing favorable outflow. Although no models develop this but we'll see...

I like this one myself for a full development.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This one actually is developed to be a typhoon and interact with 90W in the CMC/GEM and GFS., but only in some runs.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking good based on imagery.

[stormcruisin]

Looking good based on imagery.

Agree 100% this looks a future hard cranker.

[euro6208]

06Z doesn't do much with this. Keeps it in the Philippine Sea for the next 5 days until it gets pushed inland over luzon by the much stronger Neoguri to it's east...EURO basically the same...

[euro6208]

Looks to be consolidating with increased outflow and more symmetry...

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 140701 1200 13.2N 133.4E WPAC 15 1008

Latest JTWC coordinates...

[euro6208]

LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
133.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LLCC. A 020106Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER 020013Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOT) CORE WINDS AND
STRONGER (20 TO 25 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
133.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
A DISORGANIZED LLCC. A 021811Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS VERY
WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGILE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE BROAD REGION AND FAIR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER.
A 030131Z METOP-A IMAGE REVEALS THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 030134Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A SHIP
OBSERVATION, ABOUT 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF CENTER, INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SLP 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

IMO if could hang on much longer, it could be a TD at least...but a larger Neoguri will disrupt its circulation and get sucked into the colossal typhoon by then...



Looking at visible sat imagery, you'll notice its elongated LLC spinning east of Luzon...with much of its deep convection displaced to the west, and it's also pulling in moisture from the southwest.